sergeogrИзвестия Российской академии наук. Серия географическаяIzvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya2587-55662658-697510.31857/S2587556622030062sergeogr-1596Research ArticleПриродные процессы и динамика геосистемNatural Processes and Dynamics of GeosystemsПространственно-временная изменчивость ошибки воспроизведения осадков реанализом ERA5 на территории РоссииSpatial and Temporal Variability of ERA5 Precipitation Accuracy over RussiaГригорьевВ. Ю.GrigorevV. Yu.

Географический факультет МГУ

Москва

Faculty of Geography MSU

Moscow

vadim308g@mail.ruФроловаН. Л.FrolovaN. L.

Географический факультет

Москва

Faculty of Geography

Moscow

КирееваМ. Б.KireevaM. B.

Географический факультет

Москва

Faculty of Geography

Moscow

СтепаненкоВ. М.StepanenkoV. M.

Москва

Moscow

Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова; Институт водных проблем, РАНРоссияMoscow State University; Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationМосковский государственный университет имени М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияMoscow State UniversityRussian FederationМосковский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова, Научно-исследовательский вычислительный центрРоссияMoscow State University, Research Computing CenterRussian Federation202217092022863435446Copyright © Григорьев В.Ю., Фролова Н.Л., Киреева М.Б., Степаненко В.М., 20222022Григорьев В.Ю., Фролова Н.Л., Киреева М.Б., Степаненко В.М.Grigorev V.Y., Frolova N.L., Kireeva M.B., Stepanenko V.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1596

Редкая сеть наземных наблюдений за осадками на территории России и статистическая неоднородность рядов наблюдений на ней обуславливают в ряде исследований предпочтительность использования данных реанализа. Авторы статьи исследовали точность воспроизведения суточных сумм осадков на территории России за 1950–2020 гг. реанализом ERA5 при сравнении с данными наземных наблюдений на 526 метеостанциях, для 457 из которых привлекались также месячные суммы осадков с устраненной систематической ошибкой. Было выявлено, что наименее удовлетворительные результаты реанализ ERA5 показывает по величине систематической ошибки и доле дней с ложно обнаруженными осадками. В среднем по территории России ERA5 завышает количество осадков от 14% летом до 37% весной. При сравнении с откорректированными суммами осадков зимой ERA5 показывает систематическую ошибку близкую к нулю, а также меньшую величину ее пространственной изменчивости. ERA5 также ложно идентифицирует от 30 (зимой и осенью) до 40% (весной и летом) дней без осадков. Величина случайной ошибки в среднем на треть меньше изменчивости суточной суммы осадков (больше весной и летом и меньше осенью и зимой), а доля дней с осадками, корректно выявленная ERA5, составляет 84–89% и в среднем меньше летом, чем в другие сезоны. В целом ERA5 демонстрирует меньшую точность для районов и сезонов с относительно малым количеством дней с осадками и количеством осадков. Наиболее явно эта тенденция прослеживается для систематической ошибки и особенно – для доли дней с ложно обнаруженными осадками.

Sparse rain gauge grid over Russia and instrumental heterogeneity of the measurements make use of reanalysis data more suitable for some researches. We examined the accuracy of daily precipitation by ERA5 over Russia in 1950–2020 against the gauge observations over 526 locations, including 457 locations with bias-corrected observations. The main flaws of ERA5 precipitations are overestimation of their amount and too high number of days with false detected precipitations. On average, ERA5 overestimate precipitation amount from 14% in summer to 37% in spring. Comparison with bias-corrected observations for ERA5 shows the least systematic error in winter and more even spatial distribution of the error. ERA5 false detected from 30% (winter and fall) to 40% (spring and summer) days without precipitation. However, the random error in general is less than 2/3 of daily precipitation variability. The error is more in spring and summer and less in winter and fall. The share of days with precipitation identified by ERA5 is about 84–89%. The share in general less in summer than in other seasons. Overall, ERA5 shows less accuracy in dry area with few days with precipitation. The tendency is most pronounce for systematic error and for share of days with false identified precipitations.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.