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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">sergeogr</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия Российской академии наук. Серия географическая</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-5566</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-6975</issn><publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15356/0373-2444-2015-3-72-84</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">sergeogr-261</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Природные процессы и динамика геосистем</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Natural Processes and Dynamics of Geosystems</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>РАСЧЕТ И ПРОГНОЗ СОСТАВЛЯЮЩИХ СТОКА В БАССЕЙНАХ РЕК ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Estimation and Forecast of Components of Runoff in the River Basins of Central Asia</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Коновалов</surname><given-names>В. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Konovalov</surname><given-names>V. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vladgeo-exp@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт географии РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>26</day><month>07</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>72</fpage><lpage>84</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Коновалов В.Г., 2015</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Коновалов В.Г.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Konovalov V.G.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/261">https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/261</self-uri><abstract><p>Исследованы различные варианты уравнений для метода сверхдолгосрочных гидрологических прогнозов годового стока рек Центральной Азии: Амударья, Сырдарья, Тарим, Ганг, Инд, Меконг, Брахмапутра, Хуанхэ и Янцзы. В качестве входной информации в уравнениях испытаны годовые значения температуры воздуха, осадков и нормированная разность аномалий этих переменных по данным метеостанций и в узлах регулярной сетки с шагом 0.5° по широте и долготе. Выполнены моделирование, расчет и прогноз объемов ледникового стока и испарения в области абляции оледенения. Входными данными для модели служат: сумма осадков и средние значения температуры и влажности воздуха за летний период, генерализованные высотно-площадные и морфологические параметры оледенения. Расчеты по модели ледникового стока проведены для бассейнов рек Вахш, Пяндж, Зеравшан, Нарын, Брахмапутра.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Various options for method of the over long-term hydrological forecasts of annual runoff for several river basins in Central Asia (Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Tarim, Ganges, Indus, Mekong, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Huang He) are investigated. Annual air temperature, precipitation, and normalized difference of anomalies of these variables according to data of meteostations and for gridded values having 0.5 degree increments in latitude and longitude were tested as inputs. Informative capability of each predictor for calculating runoff in river basins of Central Asia was described. Expected air temperature as a predictor for long-term forecasts of river runoff was obtained by extrapolating the proper temporal series. Simulation, calculation and forecast of glacial runoff and evaporation were performed in the ablation zone of Central Asia glaciers. The input data for the model are: precipitation, average temperature and humidity during the summer, generalized areal, altitudinal and morphological parameters of the glaciation. In order to optimize the method of calculating of regime of glaciation, the populations of glaciers in the basins of the tributaries of the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Indus, Ganges, Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra and Tarim rivers were allocated to 3815 homogeneous groups of objects. Eight values of altitude and 23 gradations of glacier area are consistently applied as classifi cation criteria. For each group the average and weighted average morphometric characteristics of glaciers were determined. Data from 53 225 glaciers with a total area of 81144 km2 in the basins of Central Asia are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the method. Modelled values of water balance components (runoff, precipitation, and evaporation) were obtained for river basins of Vakhsh, Panj, Zarafshan, Naryn, Brahmaputra.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Центральная Азия</kwd><kwd>годовой и ледниковый сток</kwd><kwd>расчет и прогноз</kwd><kwd>уравнения регрессии</kwd><kwd>модель ледникового стока</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Central Asia</kwd><kwd>annual and glacial runoff</kwd><kwd>estimation and prediction</kwd><kwd>regression equations</kwd><kwd>model of glacial runoff</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Аэроклиматические характеристики пограничного слоя атмосферы Средней Азии. Кн.1. Статистические характеристики метеорологических элементов в различные часы суток. 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