sergeogrИзвестия Российской академии наук. Серия географическаяIzvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya2587-55662658-697510.31857/S2587556624030149SNGUYCsergeogr-2789Research ArticleАДАПТАЦИЯ К ИЗМЕНЕНИЯМ КЛИМАТА: ОПЫТ СТРАН И РЕГИОНОВADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: EXPERIENCE OF COUNTRIES AND REGIONSДостижение нейтрального баланса деградации земель как индикатор адаптации наземных экосистем к изменениям климата в Прикаспийском регионеAchieving Land Degradation Neutrality as an Integral Indicator of Land Ecosystems Adaptation to Climate Change in the Caspian RegionКустГ. С.KustG. S.

Москва

Moscow

kust@igras.ruЛобковскийВ. А.LobkovskiyV. A.

Москва

Moscow

АндрееваО. В.AndreevaO. V.

Москва

Moscow

ШкляеваД. С.ShklyaevaD. S.

Москва

Moscow

Институт географии РАНРоссияInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202408032025883Специальный выпуск: Геоэкологические последствия климатических изменений: основные проблемы и возможности адаптации449466Copyright © Куст Г.С., Лобковский В.А., Андреева О.В., Шкляева Д.С., 20252025Куст Г.С., Лобковский В.А., Андреева О.В., Шкляева Д.С.Kust G.S., Lobkovskiy V.A., Andreeva O.V., Shklyaeva D.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/2789

В данной работе рассматривается возможность использования показателей нейтрального баланса деградации земель (НБДЗ) как интегрального индикатора оценки адаптации наземных экосистем к изменениям климата. В качестве объекта исследования рассматриваются примыкающие к Каспию административно-территориальные единицы стран Прикаспийского региона, в пределах которых проводился анализ достижения НБДЗ. Отмечается, что ведущую роль в общей оценке НБДЗ для территории Прикаспия играет динамика продуктивности земель. По результатам расчетов выявлено, что состояние земель на значительной часть территории Прикаспия улучшилось за период 2016–2020 гг. по сравнению с базовым периодом оценки 2001–2015 гг. Это позволяет сделать вывод, что в целом продуктивность земель за этот период является сравнительно высокой, что подтверждает высокий потенциал адаптации к изменениям климата последних лет. Интенсификация эксплуатации пастбищных систем, природных пустынь и пахотных земель приводит к их усиленной деградации несмотря на то, что значительная часть остается стабильной в отношении изменений природной среды и климата. Некоторая часть природных пустынь и пастбищ (вероятно, при снижении антропогенной нагрузки), а также пахотных земель (очевидно, в случае применения приемов устойчивого землепользования) испытывает тенденции к улучшению, однако их доля в регионе невелика. Лесопокрытые земли занимают значительную часть среди улучшенных земель, поэтому можно утверждать, что успешные практики лесопользования здесь имеют приоритет и высокую эффективность в области адаптации. Отмеченные тенденции в динамике земель и их продуктивности хорошо согласуются с фиксируемыми и прогнозируемыми изменениями климата в Прикаспийском регионе. Это позволяет в целом положительно оценить опыт использования в Прикаспийском регион концепции НБДЗ для оценки адаптации к изменению климата.

Adaptation to climate change is one of the highest priorities on national and regional agendas. Various approaches are proposed to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures: valuation of ecosystem services, changes in total carbon stocks, ecosystem and community-based adaptation, actual climate change indicators and others. Currently, there are no indicators of the effectiveness of climate change adaptation measures in either the regulatory framework or the national statistical system of Russia. None of the eight SDG target 13 indicators are developed in the Rosstat system. In this paper, we examine the possibility of using land degradation neutrality (LDN) as an integrated indicator to assess the adaptation of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. We studied the territories of the administrative regions of the countries bordering the Caspian Sea, for which an analysis of LDN achievement was carried out in terms of indicators of land cover dynamics, land productivity dynamics and soil organic carbon stock dynamics. Land productivity dynamics play a leading role in the overall assessment of LDN for the Caspian region. The analysis of land transitions within the identified integral classes of productivity dynamics shows that the maintenance and change of adaptive potential and degradation risks within these classes is uneven. According to our calculations, the condition of land in a significant part of the Caspian region improved in 2016–2020 compared to the baseline period 2001–2015. In general, land productivity is relatively high during this period, confirming the high potential for adaptation to climate change in recent years. Intensified exploitation of pasture systems, natural deserts and croplands leads to their increased degradation, although a significant part of them remains stable in the face of current natural and climatic changes. Some natural deserts and rangelands (due to reduced anthropogenic pressure) and arable lands (due to the application of sustainable land management practices) are improving, but their share in the region is small. Forested areas account for a significant proportion of improved land, so it can be argued that successful forest management practices are a priority and have a high adaptive capacity in the Caspian region. The observed trends in land dynamics and productivity are in good agreement with recorded and projected climate changes in the Caspian region. This allows for a generally positive assessment of the experience of using the LDN approach in the Caspian region to assess adaptation to climate change.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.