sergeogrИзвестия Российской академии наук. Серия географическаяIzvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya2587-55662658-697510.31857/S2587556624050062sergeogr-2840Research ArticleМИГРАЦИОННЫЕ ТРЕНДЫ: ГОРОДА И ПРИГОРОДЫMIGRATION TRENDS: CITIES AND SUBURBSВ город или в пригород: что выбирают россияне на разных этапах жизненного путиTo the City or to the Suburbs: What Russians Choose at Different Stages of Life Course?КарачуринаЛ. Б.KarachurinaL. B.

Москва

Moscow

lkarachurina@hse.ruМкртчянН. В.MkrtchyanN. V.

Москва

Moscow

Национальный исследовательский университет“ Высшая школа экономики”РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation202404052025885Специальный выпуск: Город и его окружение: современные вызовы и пути развития694711Copyright © Карачурина Л.Б., Мкртчян Н.В., 20252025Карачурина Л.Б., Мкртчян Н.В.Karachurina L.B., Mkrtchyan N.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/2840

Миграция между крупными городами и их пригородами рассматривается под углом зрения двух концептуальных подходов: моделей городского развития и развития агломераций, концепции жизненного пути. Исследовательские задачи сводятся, во-первых, к анализу миграционного перетока населения между крупными городами и пригородами, во-вторых, – к выявлению его возрастных особенностей и оценке применимости к российским реалиям моделей миграции, описываемых с помощью концепций жизненного пути. Использованы индивидуальные деперсонифицированные данные по внутренней долговременной миграции населения в России за 2011–2020 гг., позволяющие детализировать направления миграции и выделять различные возрастные группы мигрантов. В качестве крупных городов рассмотрены 137 городов России людностью свыше 100 тыс. чел., к пригородам отнесены территории, формирующиеся вокруг городов данного размера на определенном расстоянии от них (20–100 км в зависимости от людности города). Анализируется показатель эффективности миграции, позволяющий оценивать не только направления перетока, но и его результативность. Полученные результаты показали, что ежегодно данные города суммарно теряют в миграционном обмене с пригородами в среднем порядка 50 тыс. чел. Почти все эти потери приходятся на ближние пригороды. Дальние пригороды теряют население в миграционном обмене с центрами. Фиксируется высокая эффективность миграции именно между центрами и их ближними пригородами. Без выделения отдельных возрастных групп из рассмотренных 25 направлений миграции (между центрами разных размеров и пригородными населенными пунктами разного размера и удаленности от центра) 16 направлены в сторону пригородов, и только 9 – в сторону крупных городов, эти потоки характеризует, кроме того, меньшая эффективность. Анализ миграции на разных стадиях жизненного пути в миграционном перетоке между крупными городами и их пригородами не имеет однозначной направленности. Наиболее активно в пригороды переезжают семьи с новорожденными детьми и с дошкольниками, а также люди в старших трудоспособных и пенсионных возрастах. В этом смысле российский кейс характеризуют те же закономерности, которые наблюдаются и в других странах. Однако эти правила не работают в Москве и ее пригородах, что ставит на данном этапе ряд вопросов, требующих дальнейших исследований.

Migration between large cities and their suburbs is considered from the perspective of two conceptual approaches: models of urban development and urban agglomeration development; life course concept. Research objectives come down to, firstly, analyzing the migration flow of the population between large cities and suburbs, and secondly, to identifying its age-related characteristics and assessing the applicability of migration models described using life course concepts to Russian realities. Individual depersonalized data on internal long-term migration of the population in Russia for 2011–2020 was used, which makes it possible to detail the directions of migration and identify different age groups of migrants. 137 Russian cities with a population of over 100 thous. people were considered as large cities; the suburbs included territories formed around cities of a given size at a certain distance from them (20–100 km depending on the population of the city). An indicator of migration efficiency is analyzed, which makes it possible to evaluate not only the directions of flow, but also its effectiveness. The results obtained showed that every year large cities lose population in exchange with suburbs on average of about 50 thous. people. Almost all of these losses occur in the surrounding suburbs. Distant suburbs are losing population in migration exchanges with the centers. High efficiency of migration is recorded between the centers and their nearby suburbs. Without identifying individual age groups, of the 25 migration directions considered, 16 are directed towards the suburbs, and only 9 towards large cities; these flows are also characterized by lower efficiency. The analysis of migration at different stages of the life course in the migration flow between large cities and their suburbs does not have a clear focus. The most active movers to the suburbs are families with children aged 0 and preschoolers, as well as people of older working and retirement age. In this sense, the Russian case is characterized by the same patterns that are observed in other countries. However, these rules do not work in Moscow and its suburbs, which raises a number of questions at this stage that require further research.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.