<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">sergeogr</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия Российской академии наук. Серия географическая</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-5566</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-6975</issn><publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15356/0373-2444-2015-1-77-86</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">sergeogr-291</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Природные процессы и динамика геосистем</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Natural Processes and Dynamics of Geosystems</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ТРЕНДЫ В КОЛЕБАНИЯХ ПРИЗЕМНОЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ ВОЗДУХА НА ПРИМЕРЕ БАШКИРИИ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Trends in the Fluctuations of Near-Surface Air Temperature (a Case Study of Bashkiria)</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Васильев</surname><given-names>Д. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Vasil’ev</surname><given-names>D. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Общенаучный факультет, кафедра физики</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ufa</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vasilevdy@ugatu.su</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ферапонтов</surname><given-names>Ю. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ferapontov</surname><given-names>Yu. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Уфимский государственный авиационный технический университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Ufa State Aviation Technical University, General Scientific Faculty, Department of Physics</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Региональное управление по гидрометеорологии и мониторингу окружающей среды Гидрометцентр РФ</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Regional Department of Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring,  Hydrometeorological Center of Russia</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>07</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>77</fpage><lpage>86</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Васильев Д.Ю., Ферапонтов Ю.И., 2015</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Васильев Д.Ю., Ферапонтов Ю.И.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Vasil’ev D.Y., Ferapontov Y.I.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/291">https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/291</self-uri><abstract><p>Методами Фурье-фильтрации и регрессии обработаны среднегодовые и сезонные значения температур по данным метеостанций Башкирии за 80 лет. На основе этого анализа определены тренды в колебаниях приземной температуры атмосферного воздуха. Произведена оценка статистической значимости полученных уравнений и их коэффициентов. Для большинства метеостанций установлена тенденция снижения температуры за период от начала наблюдений до конца 1960-х гг., в дальнейшем переходящая в противоположную фазу роста температуры, которая продолжается вплоть до настоящего времени.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The main purpose of the work was a computation of linear trends of near-surface air temperature for 80-year observation period based on the data from seven meteorological stations in Bashkiria, viz., Yanaul (1926–2012), Askino (1918–2012), Chishmy (1913–2012), Tukan (1935–2012), Meleuz (1933–2012), Baymak (1949–2012), Zilair (1933–2012). The climate of the analyzed region that is located in the East of the European part of Russia is continental due to the long distance from the Atlantic Ocean and the influence of warm air masses of Central Asia.</p><p>The average annual and seasonal temperature records were first smoothed with a 5-year Fourier fi lter in order to exclude temperature anomalies. Next, the smoothed temperature data were treated with regression analysis to compute linear trends. After being treated with the Fourier fi lter, the temperature series showed characteristic fl uctuations for both average annual and seasonal temperature data. Spectral analysis showed temperature cycles with an 11-year period. To establish the genesis of the cycles, a comparison with oscillations of the Wolf numbers was performed. For the majority of the meteorological stations under study, an average annual temperature had decreasing trend from the beginning of observations up to 1969, followed by a subsequent temperature increase trend from 1970 to the present time. Similar trends were computed for seasonal temperatures. Winter and summer temperatures also showed the same increasing trend from 1970 to 2000. However, since 2000, winter and summer temperatures have behaved differently, indicating a drastic decrease in winter and a new increase in summer temperatures. This could be associated with the Bashkiria climate becoming more continental.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>meteorological station</kwd><kwd>near-surface air temperature</kwd><kwd>trends</kwd><kwd>climatic changes</kwd><kwd>global warming</kwd><kwd>season variations</kwd><kwd>Fourier analysis</kwd><kwd>physical-geographical conditions</kwd><kwd>Bashkiria</kwd><kwd>Southern Ural</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Анисимов О.А., Борзенкова И.И., Ванденберге Дж., Лобанов В.А., Сапелко Т.В. Быстрое потепление климата на границе позднеледниковья голоцена как возможный аналог изменения климата и окружающей среды в первой четверти ХХI века // Метеорология и гидрология. 2004. № 12. С. 31−41.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Anisimov O.A., Borzenkova I.I., Vandenberge J., Lobanov V.A., Sapelko T.V. Rapid climate warming on the border of Late-Holocene as possible analog climate change and the environment in the first quarter of the 21st century, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2004, no. 12, pp. 31−41. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Будыко М.И., Винников К.Я. Глобальное потепление // Метеорология и гидрология. 1976. № 7. С. 16−26.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Budyko M.I., Vinnikov K.Ya. Global warming, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 1976, no. 7, pp. 16−26. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Вакуленко Н.В., Сонечкин Д.М. Свидетельство скорого окончания современного межледниковья // Докл. РАН. 2013. Т. 452. № 1. С. 92−95.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Vakulenko N.V., Sonechkin D.M. Evidence of the upcoming end of the contemporary interglacial, Doklady Earth Sciences, 2013, V. 452, pp. 926−929. DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X13090067</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit4"><label>4</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Васильев Д.Ю., Лукманов Р.Л., Ферапонтов Ю.И., Чувыров А.Н. Цикличность гидрометеорологических характеристик на примере Башкирии // Докл. РАН. 2012. Т. 447. № 3. С. 331−334.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Vasil’ev D.Yu., Lukmanov R.L., Ferapontov Yu.I., and Chuvyrov A.N. Periodicity in the hydrometeorological parameters of Bashkiria, Doklady Earth Sciences, 2013, V. 448, pp. 131−134. DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X12110165.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit5"><label>5</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Груза Г.В., Ранькова Э.Я. Структура и изменчивость наблюдаемого климата. Температура воздуха Северного полушария. Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1980. 72 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Gruza G.V. and Rankova E.Ya. Structure and variability of the observed climate. The air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Leningrad; Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1980, 72 p. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit6"><label>6</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Израэль Ю.А., Назаров И.М. Проблема опасного антропогенного воздействия на климатическую систему Земли // Метеорология и гидрология. 2004. № 11. С. 5–16.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Izrael Yu.A. and Nazarov I.M. The problem of dangerous anthropogenic impacts on the climate system of the Earth, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2004, no. 11, pp. 5−16. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit7"><label>7</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Казакевич Д.И. Основы теории случайных функций в задачах гидрометеорологии. Л.: Гидрометеоиздат. 1989. 228 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kazakevich D.I. Osnovy teorii sluchainyh funktsii v zadachah gidrometeorologii (Basic concept of the random functions theory in hydrometeorological problems. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1989, 228 p. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit8"><label>8</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Канухина А.Ю., Нечаева Л.А., Суворова Е.В., Погорельцова А.И. Климатические тренды температуры, зонального потока и стационарных планетарных волн по данным NCEP/NCAR реанализа // Изв. РАН. Сер. ФАО. 2007. Т. 43. № 6. С. 754−763.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kanukhina A.Yu., Nechaeva L.A., Suvorova E.V. and Pogorel’tsev A.I. Climatic trends in temperature, zonal flow, and stationary planetary waves from NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data, Izv., Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2007, no. 43, pp. 696−704. DOI: 10.1134/S0001433807060035p (In Russ.)</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit9"><label>9</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Клименко В.В. Почему замедляется глобальное потепление? // Докл. РАН. 2011. Т. 440. № 4. С. 536−539.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Klimenko V.V. Why is global warming slowing down? Doklady Earth Sciences, 2011, no. 440, pp. 1419−1422. DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X11100023.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit10"><label>10</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Кобышева Н.В., Наровлянский Г.Я. Климатологическая обработка метеорологической информации. Л.: Гидрометеоиздат. 1978. 295 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kobysheva N.V. and Narovlyansky G.Ya. Klimatologicheskaya obrabotka meteorologicheskoi informatsii (Climatological processing of meteorological information), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1978, 295 p.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit11"><label>11</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Нестеров Е.С. О фазах Североатлантического колебания // Метеорология и гидрология. 2003. № 1. С. 64−74.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Nesterov E.S. About phases of the North-Atlantic Oscillation, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2003, no. 1. pp. 64−74. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit12"><label>12</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Рубинштейн Е.С., Полозова Л.Г. Современное изменение климата. Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1966. 268 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Rubenstein E.S. and Polozova L.G. Sovremennoe izmenenie klimata (Modern climate change), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1966. 268 p.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit13"><label>13</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Сачок Г.И., Камышенко Г.А. Однородность рядов температуры воздуха и атмосферных осадков Белоруссии в условиях потепления климата // Изв. РАН. Сер. геогр. 2006. № 6. С. 48−60.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Sachok G.I. and Kamyshenko G.A. The homogeneity of the series of air temperature and precipitation in Belarus conditions of climate warming, Izv. Ross. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2006, no. 6. pp. 48−60. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit14"><label>14</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Титкова Т.Б. Изменение климата Европейского Севера России в ХХ веке // Изв. РАН. Сер. геогр. 2003. № 6. С. 30−38.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Titkova T.B. Climate Change of the European North of Russia in the twentieth century, Izv. Ross. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2003, no. 6, pp. 30−38. (In Russ.)</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit15"><label>15</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Фомин Л.М. О влиянии медленных вращений Земли на циклическую изменчивость климата // Океанология. 2003. Т. 43. № 4. С. 485−494.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Fomin L.M. On the influence of slow rotation of the Earth on a cyclic climate variability, Oceanlogy, 2003, no. 43, pp. 485−494. (In Russ.)</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit16"><label>16</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Фрейзер М. Введение в вейвлеты в свете линейной алгебры. М.: Бином. 2010. 487 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Frazier M.W. An introduction to wavelets trough linear algebra. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1999. 487 p.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit17"><label>17</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Graham N.E. Simulation of recent global temperature trends // Sci. 1995. V. 267. № 5198. P. 666−671.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Graham N.E. Simulation of recent global temperature trends, Science, 1995, V. 267, no. 5198. pp. 666−671.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit18"><label>18</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Jones P.D., Wigley T.M.L., Wright P.B. Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984 // Nature. 1986. V. 322. P. 430−434.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Jones P.D., Wigley T.M.L., and Wright P.B. Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984. Nature, 1986, V. 322, pp. 430−434.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit19"><label>19</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Petoukhov V., Rahmstorf S., Petri S., Shellnhuber H.J. Quasiresonant amplifi cation of planetary waves and recent North Hemisphere weather extremes // Proceedings of the National Academy of Science – PNAS. 2013. V. 110. № 14. P. 5336–5341. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222000110.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Petoukhov V., Rahmstorf S., Petri S., and Shellnhuber H.J. Quasiresonant amplifi cation of planetary waves and recent North Hemisphere weather extremes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science – PNAS, 2013, V. 110, no. 14, pp. 5336–5341, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222000110.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit20"><label>20</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Santer B.D., Wigley T.M.L., Gaffen D.J., Bengtsson L., Doutiaux C., Boyle J.S., Esch M., Hnilo J.J., Jones P.D., Meehl G.A., Roeckner E., Taylor K.E., Wehner M.F. Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere // Sci. 2000. V. 287. № 5456. P. 1227−1232.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Santer B.D., Wigley T.M.L., Gaffen D.J., Bengtsson L., Doutiaux C., Boyle J.S., Esch M., Hnilo J.J., Jones P.D., Meehl G.A., Roeckner E., Taylor K.E., Wehner M.F. Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere, Science, 2000, V. 287, no. 5456, pp. 1227−1232.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
