sergeogrИзвестия Российской академии наук. Серия географическаяIzvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya2587-55662658-697510.31857/S2658697525030066sergeogr-2965Research ArticleПРИРОДНЫЕ ПРОЦЕССЫ И ДИНАМИКА ГЕОСИСТЕМNATURAL PROCESSES AND DYNAMICS OF GEOSYSTEMSУниверсальный термический климатический индекс (UTCI) в середине ХХI в. на основании модельных прогнозовUniversal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in the Middle of the 21st Century According to Model ForecastsВиноградоваВ. В.VinogradovaV. V.

Москва

Moscow

vvvinog@yandex.ruИнститут географии РАНРоссияInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202510122025893406419Copyright © Виноградова В.В., 20252025Виноградова В.В.Vinogradova V.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/2965

Для оценки биоклиматических условий на территории России в середине ХХI в. в работе использовался универсальный термический климатический индекс UTCI. Исследовались сезонные и региональные особенности UTCI в условиях будущего климата (2040–2059 гг.) для двух сценариев: “мягкого” (SSP1-2.6) и “жесткого” (SSP5-8.5). Расчет среднесуточных значений индекса UTCI на территории России был выполнен с использованием программного пакета BioKlima 2.6. Для расчета использовались ежедневные данные трех моделей, участвующих в шестой фазе международного проекта межмодельного сравнения CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project): Института вычислительной математики РАН, Метеорологического офиса Центра Хэдли и Метеорологического института им. Макса Планка. Установлено, что на территории России в условиях будущего климата для обоих сценариев по-прежнему будут преобладать условия холодового стресса. Зимой (январь) практически на всей территории будет отмечаться холодовой стресс различных градаций. Летом (июль) на большей части территории России будут наблюдаться условия отсутствия теплового стресса, а на юге – комфорта. Оценка возможных будущих изменений биоклиматических условий на территории России в середине ХХI в. показала, что для обоих сценариев будет заметна тенденция сокращения дней с сильным холодовым стрессом и увеличения числа дней с тепловым стрессом на юге Европейской территории России и на юге и в центре Сибири, особенно по сценарию SSP5-8.5. Доля дней с градацией UTCI “нет теплового стресса” будет расти на большей части территории России. Наметившиеся тенденции будут способствовать улучшению биоклимата на севере и востоке страны и ухудшению условий в южных регионах, за счет роста числа дней с тепловым стрессом.

The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used to assess the bioclimatic conditions on the territory of Russia in the middle of the 21st century. Seasonal and regional features of the UTCI were studied under future climate conditions (2040–2059), for “soft” (SSP1-2.6) and “hard” (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The BioKlima 2.6 software package was used to calculate average daily UTCI values. Daily data from three models participating in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) were used for the calculation: the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Cold stress conditions will continue to prevail on the territory of Russia under the future climate conditions for both scenarios. In winter (January), cold stress of various gradations will be observed in almost the whole territory. In summer (July), conditions without heat stress will be observed in most of Russia, and comfort in the south. The assessment of possible future changes in bioclimatic conditions in Russia in the middle of the 21st century (2040–2059) showed that for both scenarios there will be a noticeable trend towards a reduction in the number of days with severe cold stress and an increase in the number of days with heat stress in the south of the European territory and in the south and in center of Siberia, especially according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The percentage of days with the UTCI “no heat stress” gradation will increase over most of Russia. The emerging trends will contribute to the improvement of the bioclimate in the regions with the worst conditions, in the north and east of the country, and to the deterioration of conditions in the most favorable regions in the south, due to an increase in the number of days with heat stress.

универсальный термический климатический индекс (UTCI)холодовой стресстепловые нагрузкитепловой комфортмодельные прогнозысценарии изменения климатаUniversal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)cold stressheat loadsthermal comfortmodel forecastsclimate change scenariosСтатья подготовлена по теме Государственного задания № FMWS-2024-0001, 1021051403088-5 “Изменения климата, их причины и последствия для окружающей среды и жизнедеятельности населения на территории России”The work was prepared within the framework of the state task of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences FMWS‑2024-0001, 1021051403088-5 “Climate changes, their causes and consequences for the environment and the life of the population in Russia.”ReferencesВиноградова В.В. Универсальный индекс теплового комфорта на территории России // Изв. РАН. Сер. геогр. 2019. № 2. С. 3–19.Antonescu B., Mărmureanu L., Vasilescu J., Marin C., Andrei S., Boldeanu M., Ene D., Ţilea A. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.