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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">sergeogr</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия Российской академии наук. Серия географическая</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-5566</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-6975</issn><publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.7868/S2658697525040103</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">sergeogr-3034</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ГЕОГРАФИЧЕСКИЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REGIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL PROBLEMS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Формирование оползней и селей в долине р. Гейзерной на Камчатке: причины и возможности потенциальной активизации</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Formation of Landslides and Debris Flows in the Geysernaya River Valley in Kamchatka: Causes and Possibilities of Potential Activation</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лебедева</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lebedeva</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">Ekaterina.lebedeva@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Балдина</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Baldina</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">baldina@geogr.msu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Черноморец</surname><given-names>С. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Chernomorets</surname><given-names>S. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sc@geogr.msu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Котенков</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kotenkov</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">avkotenkov@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт географии РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Geography RAS</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова, географический факультет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Lomonosov Moscow State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт географии РАН; Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова, географический факультет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Geography RAS; Lomonosov Moscow State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>11</day><month>02</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>89</volume><issue>4</issue><elocation-id>650–668</elocation-id><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Лебедева Е.В., Балдина Е.А., Черноморец С.С., Котенков А.В., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Лебедева Е.В., Балдина Е.А., Черноморец С.С., Котенков А.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Lebedeva E.V., Baldina E.A., Chernomorets S.S., Kotenkov A.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/3034">https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/3034</self-uri><abstract><p>Дешифрирование разновременных космических снимков с 1964 по 2021 г. показало, что в долине р. Гейзерной современные обвально-оползневые процессы наиболее активно идут на ее левом борту в пределах Гейзерного и Верхнегейзерного термальных полей. Доля обнаженных участков склонов со следами активных процессов за этот период увеличилась там на 11–17% и к 2021 г. составила до 30–40% от общей площади склонов. Анализ селевой активности в бассейне р. Гейзерной, где за последние 40 лет трижды наблюдались масштабные селевые процессы, связанные с обрушением значительных фрагментов левого борта долины, позволил установить, что селеносными являются также преимущественно левые притоки реки в ее среднем и нижнем течении. Кроме того, сели левобережной части бассейна, которые формируются в пределах термальных полей в условиях постоянного прогрева и выходов газогидротерм, могут иметь асезонный характер. Проанализировано распределение проявлений эндогенных процессов (участков тепловых аномалий, современных поднятий, разломов, эпицентров локальных землетрясений) и ареалов развития экзогенных процессов (селеносных бассейнов, участков массовых смещений материала со склонов, развития эрозии и аккумуляции рыхлого материала) в долине. По совокупности факторов выделена зона потенциальной активизации склоновых и селевых процессов и развития катастрофических их проявлений, охватывающая левый борт долины р. Гейзерной и ее днище, а также бассейн руч. Лавового. Активизацию склоновых и селевых процессов на левом борту долины мы связываем с трансформацией коренных пород в результате газогидротермального воздействия, а также с повышенным увлажнением и прогревом склонов. Высокие риски обвальных, оползневых и селевых процессов, инициация которых наиболее вероятна на левом борту долины, необходимо учитывать при планировании развития рекреационных объектов в Кроноцком заповеднике. Для обеспечения безопасного туризма в бассейне реки необходимо создание системы мониторинга.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The interpretation of multi-temporal satellite images from 1964 to 2021 revealed that modern landslide processes are most active on the left side of the Geysernaya River valley, within the Geysernoe and Verkhnegeysernoe thermal fields. During this period, the proportion of exposed slope areas showing signs of dynamic processes increased by 11–17%. By 2021, this figure had risen to 30–40% of the total slope area. Large-scale debris flows associated with the collapse of significant parts of the left side of the valley have been observed three times in the last 40 years. Analyzing debris flow activity in the Geysernaya River basin revealed that debris flows predominantly form in the left tributaries of the river in its middle and lower reaches. In addition, the debris flows on the left side of the valley may be off-seasonal, as they are formed within the thermal fields under conditions of constant heating and outlets of gas-hydrotherms. We investigated the distribution of manifestations of endogenous processes (areas of thermal anomalies, modern uplift, faults and epicenters of local earthquakes) and areas of activation of exogenous processes (debris flows, rock mass movements, erosion and aggradation) in the valley. We identified the zone where catastrophic slope and debris flow processes could potentially occur. This zone is confined to the bottom of the Geysernaya River valley and the left side of the valley, as well as the Lavovyi Creek basin. Slope processes are activated by the transformation of bedrock into clay due to gas-hydrothermal impact, as well as slope wetting and heating. When planning the development of recreational facilities in the Kronotsky Reserve, the high risk of rockfalls, landslides and debris flows, most likely on the left side of the valley, should be considered. In order to ensure safe tourism, it is necessary to create a system for monitoring slope processes.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>склоновые процессы</kwd><kwd>газогидротермы</kwd><kwd>сель</kwd><kwd>эндогенные процессы</kwd><kwd>дешифрирование снимков высокого разрешения</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>processes</kwd><kwd>gas-hydrotherms</kwd><kwd>debris flows</kwd><kwd>endogenous processes</kwd><kwd>high-resolution image interpretation</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Анализ материалов и обобщение данных выполнено в рамках государственного задания Института географии РАН FMWS-2024-0005 (анализ геоморфологических процессов в условиях газогидротермальной активности) и госбюджетных тем I.20 121051400061-9 (дешифрирование снимков, составление карт) и I.7 АААА-А16-116032810093-2 (оценка риска опасных природных процессов) МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">Analysis of remote sensing materials and summarization of data were performed within the framework of the state assignment of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences FMWS-2024-0005 (geomorphological processes in conditions of gas-hydrothermal activity) and within the state budgetary themes I.20 121051400061-9 and I.7 АААА-А16-116032810093-2 of the Lomonosov Moscow State University.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Атлас долины реки Гейзерной в Кроноцком заповеднике / ред. А.В. 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