Ethnic and Regional Dimensions of the Demographic Crisis in Bulgaria
https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620060084
Abstract
The formation of a specific socio-psychological discourse regarding demographic processes in Bulgaria, a country which lost over 2 million of its population from 1989 to 2019, is presented in the article. In the public debate in Bulgaria there is an overproduction of terms that attempt to describe negative demographic trends (e.g.: “genocide”, “demographic suicide”, “demographic catastrophe”, etc.). Despite the abundance of emotional assessments of the situation by political stakeholders and mass media representatives, the main dilemma is the question: is it a demographic crisis or a demographic disaster? In addition to the illustration on this issue at the national level, the author attempted to interpret it in ethno-demographic and regional aspect. The main theses of the author are confirmed by selected empirical data which illustrate the serious scale of depopulation of Bulgaria as a whole and its regions in particular, as well as the population aging and emigration of young and educated Bulgarians. Low birth rates of the ethnic Bulgarians are accompanied by high birth rates and natural increase of the Roma population. Attention is also drawn to the depopulation of Bulgarian villages, which has lasted since the 1950s, as well as to the concentration of population and investment in several large cities. The helplessness of Bulgarian society and Bulgarian politics, suffering from a long-term, chronic lack of an adequate approach to neutralizing negative, long-term social and demographic trends, is also emphasized.
References
1. Updated National Strategy for Demographic Development of the Republic of Bulgaria (2012–2030). Sofia: Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, 2012. 151 p. (In Bulg.).
2. Aleshkovskii I.А. The demographic crisis as a threat to the national security of Russia. Vek Globalizatsii, 2012, no. 2, pp. 96–114. (In Russ.).
3. Anastasova M., Malamova N. Development of demographic resources and labor force in rural areas. Ekonomika i Upravlenie na Selskoto Stopanstvo, 2011, vol. 56, pp. 145–151. (In Bulg.).
4. Angelov G., Lesenski M. Теndencies in Bulgarian migration. Open Society Institute – Sofia, 2017. Available at: http://osi.bg/downloads/File/2017/MigratsiaEU_Okt2017_new.pdf (accessed: 07.01.2020).
5. Angelov I. Demographic crisis in Bulgaria and Europe, 2016. Available at: http://pogled.info/avtorski/Prof-di-n-Ivan-Angelov/demografskata-kriza-v-balgariya-ievropa.75816 (accessed: 08.09.2019). (In Bulg.).
6. Borisova R. The emigrants are the largest foreign investor in Bulgaria. SEGA, 9 July 2019. Available at: www.segabg.com/node/7944. (accesssed: 12.01.2020). (In Bulg.).
7. Borodina T.L. Regional features of population dynamics in Russia in the post-Soviet period. Reg. Res. Russ., 2017, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 10–22.
8. Vishnevskii A.G. After the demographic transition: divergence, convergence or diversity? Obshchestv. Nauki i Sovremennost’, no. 2, pp. 112–129. (In Russ.).
9. In the current demographic crisis, there is a cruel combination of factors. ASSA – M, 28 May 2004. Available at: www.assa-m.com/ppechat_st7.php. (accessed: 18.09.2019). (In Bulg.).
10. Golemanov N. Pol i sm’’rtnost (B’’lgariya, 1990–2025) [Sex and Mortality (Bulgaria, 1990–2025)] Sofia: Prof. Marin Drinov Publ., 2001. 156 р. (In Bulg.).
11. Report for Bulgaria 2019, Including an in-Depth Review on the Prevention and Correction of Macroeconomic Imbalances. Brussels: European Commission, 2019. 104 p. (In Bulg.).
12. Zelikova Yu. Stareyushchaya Evropa: demografiya, politika, sotsiologiya [Aging Europe: Demography, Politics, Sociology]. St Petersburg: Norma Publ., 2014. 224 p.
13. Kalchev Y. V’’nshnata migratsiya na naselenieto v B’’lgariya [External Migration of the Population in Bulgaria]. Ruse: Dunav-pres Publ., 2001. 301 р. (In Bulg.).
14. Short-Term and Medium-Term Measures for Overcoming the Demographic Crisis in the Republic of Bulgaria. Sofia: Council of Ministers, 2019. 174 p. (In Bulg.).
15. Krystev V. Bulgaria in the geopolitical space of the West: results of structural adaptation. Sotsial’no-Ekon. Geogr.: Vestn. Assotsiatsii Ross. Geogr.-Obshchestvovedov, 2019, no. 2, pp. 116–128. (In Russ.).
16. Where are the most depopulated villages in the country? DarikNews.bg, 19 May 2017. Available at: https://dariknews.bg/novini/bylgariia/kyde-sa-najobezliudenite-sela-v-stranata-2024235. (In Bulg.).
17. Manov B. Demographic Crisis and National Security – is there a way out for Bulgaria. B’’lgarski Ikonomicheski Pregled, 2014, no. 2, pp. 14–25. (In Bulg.).
18. Mirchev M. Sotsialna dinamika i tsivilizatsionno razsloyavane. V’’zproizvodstvo na naselenieto, choveshkiya kapital i trudovite resursi v B’’lgariya [Social Dynamics and Civilizational Stratification. Reproduction of the Population, Human Capital, and Labour Resources in Bulgaria]. Sofia: М-8-М Publ., 2009. 544 p.
19. Mikhova G., Naidenova P. The demographic Transistion of the Bulgarian Minorities. Naselenie, 2011, nos. 1–2, pp. 59–76. (In Bulg.).
20. National Strategy for Demographic Development of the Republic of Bulgaria 2000–2006. Sofia: Council of Ministers. 60 p. (In Bulg.).
21. Radosvet Radev: We need imports of labour force. Flagman, 5 October 2018. Available at: www.flagman.bg/article/170079 (accessed: 05.01.2020). (In Bulg.).
22. 2050 in Bulgaria: Gypsies will be 3000000, Turks – 1200000, Bulgarians – 800000. Ataka, 13 December 2013. Available at: www.vestnikataka.bg (accessed: 02.08.2019). (In Bulg.).
23. Sidorenko A. Demographic transition and “demographic security” in post-Soviet countries. Population and Economics, 2019, no. 3(3), pp. 1–22. doi 10.3897/popecon.3.e47236
24. Stefanov N. Bulgaria’s demographic catastrophe – parameters, causes, perspectives and alternatives. Available at: www.viaevrasia.com/documents/Demografskata%20katastrofa%20v%20Bulgaria.pdf (accessed: 17.09.2019). (In Bulg.).
25. Stoev R. Ethno-Regional differentiation of fertility in Bulgaria, 2001–2010. Naselenie, 2010, no. 1, pp. 102– 110. (In Bulg.).
26. Stoyanova P. More than half of the foreign investments in Bulgaria are directed to Sofia, 2017. Investror.bg, 10 March 2017. Available at: www.investor.bg/biudjeti-finansi/333/a/nad-polovinata-ot-chujdite-investiciiv-bylgariia-sa-nasocheni-kym-sofiia-235431/ (accessed: 12.12.2014). (In Bulg.).
27. Tahir M. Ethnodemographic aspects of the demographic crisis, 2014. Available at: http://pogled.info/analitichen/etnodemografski-aspekti-na-demografskata-kriza.52807 (accessed: 17.09.2019). (In Bulg.).
28. Tsekov N. Bulgaria is disappearing. Deutsche Welle, 2 May 2012. Available at: www.dw.com/bg (accessed: 08.09.2019).
29. Tsekov N. Depopulation and life conditions in Bulgarian village. Naselenie, 2012, no. 1(1–2), pp. 116–124. (In Bulg.).
30. Kiersz A., Hoff M. The 20 fastest shrinking countries in the world. Available at: www.businessinsider.com/thefastest-shrinking-countries-in-the-world-decliningpopulations?IR=T (accessed: 27.07.2020).
31. Mladenov Ch. The demographic crisis in Bulgaria – geographical dimensions. In Regionality and/or Locality. Discussion Papers, Special. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 2003, pp. 44–52.
32. Vassilev R. Bulgaria’s demographic crisis: underlying causes and some short-term implications. Southeast European Politics, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 14–27.
33. World Population Prospects 2019 Highlights. New York: United Nations, 2019. 39 p.
Review
For citations:
Mihaylov V.T. Ethnic and Regional Dimensions of the Demographic Crisis in Bulgaria. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2020;84(6):832-843. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620060084