Mechanisms of Formation of the Landscape-Zonal Systems (Empirical-Statistical Modeling)

Numerical substantiation of the conceptual position of the native geographical ecology on the genetic unity of the natural zone and geographical landscape is presented. Quantitative assessments of the landscape organization of the boreal ecotone, an ensemble of zonal transitions from the boreal belt to the sub-boreal belt in the East European subcontinent, were carried out on the basis of well-known methodological approaches to the poly-system analysis of the geographical environment. The problem was solved using empirical-statistical models of landscape-zonal connections. The cybernetic model of natural complexes developed by the author as a hierarchical system of their organization was used as a working tool for analysis. Three methodological approaches to poly-system analysis have been implemented: (1) functional, with the allocation of the structures of ecological niches of landscape units in their factorial space; (2) typological, with the differentiation of the territory by groups of landscapes and the analysis of their interaction; (3) hierarchical, using cluster (taxonomic) landscape classification models. Measures of the tightness of connections between various geocomponents in a set of landscape units are obtained, and based on these measures, geo-synergic kernels of parametric homogeneity of zonal geo-spaces are obtained. Specific partial landscape structures are established, formed by the most closely related geo-components and determining the face of landscape-zonal systems. With the help of information modeling, a differentiated assessment of the landscape organization of natural zones (sub-zones) was carried out by operations with equivalence matrices of geo-component blocks. The territorial space of the boreal ecotone and its zonal parts is described by the set-theoretical and cluster models of geo-complex connections. On the basis of quantitative criteria, the contribution of various factors to the landscape organization of the zonal geo-space is estimated. This makes it possible to determine the degree of sensitivity of the landscape structure of a given territory to changes in zonal-climatic conditions, which is directly related to assessments of the stability of landscape-zonal systems in a changing climate.

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