Climatic Anomalies and Floods in Mountainous Areas of Southern Siberia (Altai-Sayan Region)

The work is devoted to the climatic anomalies of Altai and Sayan Mountains. Abnormal values pose the greatest danger to the population, infrastructure, and natural geosystems. The purpose of the article is to identify the spatiotemporal dynamics of climatic anomalies in terms of precipitation, temperature, and snow cover thickness in Southern Siberia. For this purpose, the data from 48 meteorological stations were processed using mathematical statistics methods. The anomalous and extreme values are compared for two 30-year periods: the “climatic norm” of 1961–1990 and the modern 1991–2021. As a result, the relationship between an increase in the frequency of abnormal values of these parameters and an increase in the number of floods was revealed. The most pronounced positive dynamics of the frequency of manifestations are in pentadic (5-day) anomalous with 60-mm and extreme with 100-mm precipitation limits. Temporary changes in the maximum thickness of the snow cover almost everywhere have a positive sign, which indicates an increase in the likelihood of avalanches. The study of the dynamics of abnormal and extreme indicators of the thermal regime of the territory indicates a significant increase in the role of temperature increases in the spring months in the formation of floods. Maps of the spatial distribution of these climate characteristics of various security have been obtained. Important zones of maximum precipitation distribution have been found throughout the Altai-Sayan region, with 5% of their occurrence at a dangerous level of more than 60 mm/day. The areas of distribution of the maximum snow cover capacity with indicators of more than 160 cm with a security of 5% are also highlighted. In both cases, these values are the beginning of a dangerous natural phenomenon. Data on the probabilistic structure of anomalies in precipitation, temperature, and snow cover thickness can be applied in practice to ensure safety and develop strategies for the sustainable development of the region.

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