Self-Organization at the Trajectory Turning Point: Сhallenges for Russia
https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620010173
Abstract
The global integration and disintegration cycles alternate in the development of the world economy. The
growth of the world economy can be seen as the “up-regime” in the nonlinear dynamics by the analogy with population growth in the theory of S.P. Kapitsa. Accordingly, this growth is the subject to the internal laws, and not external constraints. S.P. Kapitsa has formulated this concept as a principle of demographic imperative. The slowdown both in population growth and in economic growth in the coming years is inevitable. Two scenarios are possible: (1) the worst-case in the spirit of “limits to growth” and (2) the transition from extensive development to intensive, in the spirit of a disgraced Soviet philosopher M. Petrov. The change in the trend to the degradation of the educational and intellectual level is a necessary condition for the preservation of the progressive development of society in the conditions of a significant slowdown in the GDP.
growth of the world economy can be seen as the “up-regime” in the nonlinear dynamics by the analogy with population growth in the theory of S.P. Kapitsa. Accordingly, this growth is the subject to the internal laws, and not external constraints. S.P. Kapitsa has formulated this concept as a principle of demographic imperative. The slowdown both in population growth and in economic growth in the coming years is inevitable. Two scenarios are possible: (1) the worst-case in the spirit of “limits to growth” and (2) the transition from extensive development to intensive, in the spirit of a disgraced Soviet philosopher M. Petrov. The change in the trend to the degradation of the educational and intellectual level is a necessary condition for the preservation of the progressive development of society in the conditions of a significant slowdown in the GDP.
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- Our world is far more shaped by high rates of economic growth than we imagine that.
- Concepts of limits of growth, sustainable development, a carbon-free economy, etc. are attempts to adapt to the sharply declining growth rates.
- The slowdown in growth rates coincides with the second global disintegration cycle which started in 2008.
- Global stagnation will lead to a progressive return of various elements of the middle ages that is already happening.
- The alternative is a shift from the extensive development to an intensive one.
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For citations:
Shuper V.A. Self-Organization at the Trajectory Turning Point: Сhallenges for Russia. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2020;(1):147-155. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620010173
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