Thermal Impact in the Territory of Russia in the Middle of the 21st Century by Model Data
https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620030115
Abstract
The assessment of heat waves’ number, intensity and duration change during summer (June-August) in the Russia territory for the “historical period” (1980-1999) and for the middle of the 21st century (2046-2055) was made according to the data of the global climate model (INMCM4) of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences. The definition of the extreme events’ criteria depends on the thresholds’ choice. In this paper, heat waves’ thresholds are considered as the values of the 95th percentile of maximum daily temperature distribution. An increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding the threshold values for the south of the European Russia and Western Siberia, Yakutia, the north of Chukotka, and Primorsky krai in the middle of the 21st century according to the “soft” scenario of RCP4.5 was revealed. Maximum changes are expected in Taimyr and Yamal. In the rest of the territory, the number of such days will be reduced. For the “hard” scenario of RCP8.5, more contrast changes in the similar locations are expected. Under the “hard” scenario, by the middle of the 21st century the maximum temperature in the heat wave will exceed 40°C in the south of the country.
Keywords
Supporting agencies: The study was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 16-17-10236
About the Author
V. V. Vinogradova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
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1. Heat waves and discomfort scores: 1980–1999 "historical" period; 2046–2055, scenario RCP4.5; 2046–2055, scenario RCP8.5 | |
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- An assessment of heat waves for the middle of the 21st century was made according to the data of the INMCM4 model.
- Under the ‘soft’ scenario, the growth of extremely hot days is expected in the south of European Russia and Western Siberia, in Yakutia and Primorsky Krai.
- Under the ‘hard’ scenario, the maximum temperature of the heat waves in the southern regions exceeds 40 °C.
- In the middle of the 21st century, an increase in absolutely unfavourable heat waves is possible.
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For citations:
Vinogradova V.V. Thermal Impact in the Territory of Russia in the Middle of the 21st Century by Model Data. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2020;84(3):404-413. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620030115
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