Correlation of the Monthly and Annual Runoff Multiple-Year Variation in the Ural River Basin

This article examines the strength of perennial fluctuations’ relationship in monthly and annual runoffs in the Ural River basin. The norms of monthly and annual runoffs were calculated for the rivers of this basin. Using the wavelet analysis method, trends of their changes and water flow cycles were identified. An estimation of the river flow spatial correlation within the studied river basin was made. On the basis of a periodically correlated process model, the time series was predicted for the selected hydrological seasons. The relationship strength between the monthly average discharge of each month and the average annual water discharge, as well as between the average monthly water discharges were estimated. The statistical significance of the identified correlations was determined. A significantly stronger correlation between the values of the runoff within the year in comparison to that of the interannual was established. The last finding may be due to the long-period oscillation presence in the temporal series that helps manifest the rhythm of the annual and intra-annual cycles. It is proposed to consider the runoff fluctuations in the Ural River basin as a random stochastic process consisting of two components: inertial (trend) and seasonal (oscillating).

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