Shrinkage of Active Space in Central Russia: Population Dynamics and Land Use in Countryside

The article is based on a comprehensive approach that includes joint examination of reducing agricultural land, increasing share of small and abandoned villages, and expanding new recreational potential of rural areas around Moscow and Moscow oblast. Statistical indicators for Russian federal subjects and municipal districts, as well as satellite images used in the article give a multi-scale and fractional picture of the land use shrinkage which, in recent years, has been more and more clearly repeating the historical process of spatial development, but backwards. Agricultural production is shifting to areas with better natural conditions, including those seen at the intra-regional scale. The trend of concentration in the suburbs, where agriculture takes advantage of accumulated investment, labor resources, sales opportunities, and development of infrastructure, is gradually changing to development in areas with better natural conditions, sometimes remote from cities. At the same time, the population continues to concentrate in large cities and suburbs of regional centers, promoting the shrinkage of populated space. Calculations by municipal districts for the period from 1990 to 2017 confirm these divergent trends. The conclusions are illustrated by maps for the territory of Central Russia, compiled with the help of satellite images that show cultivated and unused agricultural land, as well as the spread of abandoned and small villages. Calculations based on information obtained from maps also allow to adjust the data from statistics and to reveal the real picture of changes in rural settlement and land use. The cartographic method also revealed the possibilities and limitations of re-development of rural areas by city dwellers, including not only expanding areas of garden or dacha associations and cottage settlements, but also single dacha residences in depopulating villages.

early developed regions, land use, agriculture, planted area, settlement pattern, population dynamics, re-development, dacha residences, remote sensing, decoding of satellite images, cartographic method

1. Averkieva K.V. Rural area of the Non-Chernozem region: depopulation and possible ways of adaptation to new conditions. In Voprosy geografii. Sb. 135: Geografiya naseleniya i sotsial’naya geografiya [Problems of Geography. Vol. 135: Population Geography and Social Geography]. Alekseev A.I., Tkachenko A.A., Eds. Moscow: Kodeks Publ., 2013, pp. 108–125. (In Russ.).

2. Averkieva K.V., Nefedova T.G. Dacha “colonization” of the Russian hinterland. An example of the Kostroma region. Mir Rossii, 2016, no. 1, pp. 103–128. (In Russ.).

3. Alekseev A.I., Vorobiev M.I. How many rural residents are there in Russia in winter? Vest. Mosk. Univ. Ser. 5: Geography, 2018, no. 2, pp. 104–106. (In Russ.).

4. Alekseev A.I., Safronov S.G. Changes in rural settlement in Russia at the end of the XX–beginning of XXI century. Vestn. Mosk. Univ., Ser. 5: Geogr., 2015, no. 2, pp. 66–76. (In Russ.).

5. Balash V.A., Balash O.S., Kharlamov A.V. Features of constructing the geographically weighted regression for modeling the real estate market. Vesn. Saratov. Gos. Sots.-Ekonom. Univ., 2008, no. 5(24), pp. 125–127. (In Russ.).

6. Bulanov K.A., Denisov P.V., Lupian E.A., Martyanov A.S., Sereda I.I., Troshko K.A., Tolpin V.A., Bartalev S.A., Khvostikov S.A. Remote sensing unit of Integrated Federal Information System on agricultural lands. Sovr. Probl. Distantsionnogo Zondirovaniya Zemli iz Kosmosa, 2019, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 171–182. (In Russ.).

7. Glezer O.B., Vainberg E.I. The space of the life activities of the population and settlement pattern as the factors and conditions of the modernization of Russia. Reg. Res. Russ., 2014, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 134–140.

8. Global’nyi klimat i pochvennyi pokrov Rossii. Opustynivanie i degradatsiya zemel’: institutsional’nye, infrastrukturnye, tekhnologicheskie mery adaptatsii (sel’skoe i lesnoe khozyaistvo [The Global Climate and the Soil Cover of Russia. Desertification and Land Degradation: Institutional, Infrastructural, Technological Adaptation Measures (Agriculture and Forestry)]. Moscow: MBA Publ., 2019, vol. 2. 476 p.

9. Egorova E.V. Settlement patterns of territories and efficiency of land resources use in rural municipalities. Innotsentr, 2018, no. 4(21), pp. 111–117. (In Russ.).

10. Zubarevich N.V. Transformation of the rural settlement pattern and social services network in rural areas. Reg. Res. Russ., 2013, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 221–233. doi 10.1134/S2079970513030118

11. Ioffe G.V., Nefedova T.G. Center and periphery in agriculture of Russian regions. Probl. Prognozirovaniya, 2001, no. 6, pp. 100–110. (In Russ.).

12. Kaz’min M.A. Zemel’nye reformy v Rossii v XIX-XX vv. Uroki proidennogo puti [Land Reforms in Russia in the XIX–XX Centuries. Lessons of the Passed Way]. Moscow: URSS Publ., 2012. 238 p.

13. Lyuri D.I., Goryachkin S.V., Karavaeva N.A., Denisenko E.A., Nefedova T.G. Dinamika sel’skokhozyaistvennykh zemel' Rossii v XX veke i postagrogennoe vosstanovlenie rastitel’nosti i pochv [Dynamics of Agricultural Lands in Russia in XX Century and Postagrogenic Restoration of Vegetation and Soils]. Moscow: GEOS Publ., 2010. 416 p.

14. Lukhmanov D.N. Evolution of rural settlement pattern. In Gorod i derevnya v Evropeiskoi Rossii: 100 let peremen [City and Village in European Russia: 100 Years of Changes]. Nefedova T.G., Polyan P.M., Treivish A.I., Eds. Moscow: OGI Publ., 2001, pp. 225–272. (In Russ.).

15. Makhrova A.G., Medvedev A.A., Nefedova T.G. Garden and dacha settlements of citizens in the system of rural settlements. Vestn. Mosk. Univ., Ser. 5: Geogr., 2016, no. 2, pp. 64–74. (In Russ.).

16. Medvedev A.A., Gunko M.S. Identification of the signs of present population based on remote sensing data. Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Geodeziya i Aerofotos’’emka, 2016, no. 6, pp. 85–91. (In Russ.).

17. Medvedev A.A., Telnova N.O., Kudikov A.V. Remote highly-detailed monitoring of forest overgrowth on abandoned agricultural lands. Vopr. Lesn. Nauki, 2019, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 1–12. (In Russ.).

18. Mezrdu domom i … domom. Vozvratnaya prostranstvennaya mobil’nost naseleniya Rossii [Between Home and … Home. Return Spatial Mobility of Population in Russia]. Nefedova T.G., Averkieva K.V., Makhrova A.G., Eds. Moscow: Novyi Khronograf Publ., 2016. 504 p.

19. Mkrtchyan N.V. Migration in rural areas of Russia: territorial differences. Population and Economics, 2019, no. 1 (3), pp. 39–52. doi 10.3897/popecon.3.e34780

20. Nefedova T.G. Shrinkage of the developed space of Russia is a reality, not an illusion. In Szhatie sotsial’noekonomicheskogo prostranstva: novoe v teorii regional’no-go razvitiya i praktike gosudarstvennogo regulirovaniya [Shrinkage of Socio-Economic Space: New in the Theory of Regional Development and Practice of the State Regulation]. Moscow: Eslan Publ., 2010, pp. 128–145. (In Russ.).

21. Nefedova T.G. Sel’skaya Rossiya na pereput’e. Geographicheskie ocherki [Rural Russia at the Crossroads. Geographical Essays]. Moscow: Novoe Izd. Publ., 2003. 404 p.

22. Nefedova T.G. Twenty-five years of post-Soviet agriculture in Russia: geographical trends and contradictions. Reg. Res. Russ., 2017, no. 7, pp. 311–321. doi 10.1134/S2079970517040074

23. Polyarizatsiya rossiiskogo prostranstva: ekomoniko-, sotsio- i kul’turno-geograficheskie aspekty [Polarization of the Russian Space: Economic, Socio – Cultural-Geographical Aspects]. Streletsky V.N., Ed. Moscow: IP Matushkina Publ., 2018. 416 p.

24. Potentsial Blizhnego Severa: ekologiya, ekonomika, sel’skie poseleniya [Potential of the Near North: Economy, Ecology, Rural Settlements]. Pokrovsky N.E., Nefedova T.G., Eds. Moscow: Logos Publ., 2014. 492 p.

25. Rumyantsev I.N., Smirnova A.A., Tkachenko A.A. Rural settlements “without population” as a geographical and statistical phenomenon. Vestn. Mosk. Univ., Ser. 5: Geogr., 2019, no. 1, pp. 29–27. (In Russ.).

26. Szhatie sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo prostranstva: novoe v teorii regional’nogo razvitiya i praktike gosudarstvennogo regulirovaniya [Shrinkage of Socio-Economic Space: New in the Theory of Regional Development and Practice of the State Regulation]. Moscow: Eslan, 2010. 428 p.

27. Skobeev N.M. The latest trends in land use change and the specifics of their accounting on the example of the Tula region. Reg. Issled., 2017, vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 81–92. (In Russ.).

28. Tkachenko A.A., Smirnov I.P., Smirnova A.A. Transformation of the network of rural settlement centers at the lower-level in Central Russia. Vestn. Mosk. Univ., Ser. 5: Geogr., 2019, no. 2, pp. 78–85. (In Russ.).

29. Uzun V.Ya. “White spots” and unused agricultural lands: what the 2016 Agricultural Census showed. Monitoring, 2017, vol. 59, no. 21, pp. 14–21. (In Russ.).

30. Shagaida N.I., Uzun V.Ya. Draivery rosta i strukturnye sdvigi v sel’skom khozyaistve Rossii [Drivers of Growth and Structural Shifts in Russian Agriculture]. Moscow: Delo Publ., 2019. 96 p.

31. Shchepetkova I.O. Dachas in the suburbs of Perm: history, territorial organization, and regional features. Reg. Res. Russ., 2018, no. 8, pp. 386–394. doi 10.1134/S2079970518040093

32. Alcantara C., Kuemmerle T., Baumann M., Bragina E.V., Griffiths P., Hostert P., Knorn J., Müller D., Prishchepov A.V., Schierhorn F. Mapping the extent of abandoned farmland in Central and Eastern Europe using MODIS time series satellite data. Environ. Res. Lett., 2013, vol. 8, no 3, 035035. doi 10.1088/17489326/8/3/035035

33. Bartalev S., Plotnikov D., Loupian E. Mapping of arable land in Russia using multi-year time series of MODIS data and the LAGMA classification technique. Remote Sens. Lett., 2016, vol. 7, no 3, pp. 269–278.

34. Dealing with Urban and Rural Shrinkage: Formal and Informal Strategies. Hospers G-J, Syssner J., Eds. Münster: LIT Verlag, 2018. 144 p.

35. Hansen M.C., Potapov P.V., Moore R., Hancher M., Turubanova S.A., Tyukavina A., Thau D., Stehman S.V., Goetz S.J., Loveland T.R., et al. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science, 2013, vol. 342, no. 6160, pp. 850–853.

36. Kamp J. Weighing up reuse of Soviet croplands. Nature, 2014, vol. 505, no. 7484, p. 483.

37. Lesiv M., Schepaschenko D., Moltchanova E., Bun R., Dürauer M., Prishchepov A., Schierhorn F., Estel S., Kuemmerle T., Alcantara C., Concepcion P.C., et al. Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries. Sci. Data, 2018, no. 5. doi 10.1038/sdata.2018.56

38. Meyfroidt P., Schierhorn F., Prishchepov A., Müller D., Kuemmerle T. Drivers, constraints and trade-offs associated with recultivating abandoned cropland in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Global Environ. Change, 2016. vol. 37, pp. 1–15.

39. Potapov P.V., Turubanova S.A., Tyukavina A., Krylov A.M., McCarty J.L., Radeloff V.C., Hansen M.C. Eastern Europe’s forest cover dynamics from 1985 to 2012 quantified from the full Landsat archive. Remote Sens. Environ., 2014, vol. 159, pp. 28–43. doi 10.1016/j.rse.2014.11.027

40. Schepaschenko D., McCallum I., Shvidenko A., Fritz S., Kraxner F., Obersteiner M. A new hybrid land cover dataset for Russia: a methodology for integrating statistics, remote sensing and in situ information. J. Land Use Sci., 2011, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 245–259. doi 10.1080/1747423X.2010.511681

41. Second Home Tourism in Europe: Lifestyle Issues and Policy Responses. Roca Z., Ed. Farnham: Ashgate Publ., 2013. 311 p.

42. Second Home Tourism in Finland: Perceptions of Citizens and Municipalities on the State and Development of Second Home Tourism. Finnish Environ. Inst., 2015. 96 p.

43. The Routledge Handbook of Second Home Tourism and Mobilites. Hall C.M., Muller D.K., Eds. London and N.Y.: Routledge, 2018. 365 p.

44. Wegren S.K. Rural inequality in post-Soviet Russia. Probl. Post-Communism, 2014, no. 61(1), pp. 52–64.