Quantitative Reconstruction of the Altai Region Annual Air Temperatures over the Past 1400 Years According to Analytical Microstratigraphy of Lake Kucherla Varved Clays

The proglacial Lake Kucherla (Kucherlinskoe) in Altai contains annually laminated bottom sediments (glacial clay), which makes it possible to build accurate age models using layer counting (varve chronology). Age models (core dept-age of the sediment layer) were verified by isotopic data (Cs-137, Pb-210 and C-14) and analytical microstratigraphy techniques based on the use of scanning X-ray fluorescence analysis with synchrotron radiation beams (micro-XRF-SR). Time series of more than 20 rock-forming and trace elements were constructed over the entire core depth of Lake Kucherla bottom sediments. Comparison of geochemical data with regional instrumental meteorological observations in the interval 1940-2016 allowed us to identify climate indicators and build transfer functions-the annual air temperature as a function of the elemental composition of bottom sediments. The correlation coefficient for the average annual temperature is +0.59, which is a significant value (n = 76, p = 0.99), indicating the presence of a stable linear relationship between the variations of the meteorological parameter and the composition of bottom sediments formed under the influence of external weather and climate conditions. Using average 10-year values significantly increases the correlation coefficient (+0.84) and reduces the reconstruction error to ±0.52°C (for a 95% probability). By approximating the transfer function to the entire sampling depth, a reconstruction of the regional temperature change over the time interval of the last 1400 years was constructed with an estimated error of reconstructed parameter. A comparison of the reconstruction with the data of regional studies and global reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere shows the presence of general trends and extremes and minimal discrepancies in time scales and reconstructed temperatures.

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