Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services of Forest Lands in the Southern Part of Eastern Siberia

The features of the transformation of individual components of the natural environment in the south of Eastern Siberia (Republic of Buryatia was analyzed in detail) under the conditions of climate change, which have a critical impact on the ecosystem services of forest lands, have been determined. A system of sequential and complementary methods has been applied, which allows an objective analysis of this impact and its assessment: remote sensing methods, correlation analysis, cartographic method, methods of the concept of total economic value, and “ecosystem-based adaptation.” The air temperature, precipitation, and NDVI trends were calculated for the wet (1982–1999) and dry (2000–2018) periods. Temperature rise, as the most critical parameter of the state of forest lands, is observed for the entire study area; at the same time, zones with low growth rates of surface temperature are interspersed with zones with high growth rates, both in latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The wet period is characterized by positive trends in the amount of precipitation for almost the entire study area. During the dry period, negative dynamics of the amount of precipitation is observed for the predominant part of this territory. The wet season is marked by an almost universal rise in NDVI. During the dry season, forest vegetation is characterized by multidirectional trends in NDVI and precipitation; here the NDVI dynamics is influenced by temperature. These patterns also predetermine changes in the development of ecosystem services of forest lands in the area under consideration. It has been determined that climate change has a negative impact on the predominant part of the ecosystem services of forest lands. The greatest negative impact on these services over a long period of observation (1936–2015) was caused by forest fires, which by the end of this period had significantly increased both in number and in area. A set of measures is considered to facilitate adaptation of forest land management to climate change.

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