Scenario Approach to Adaptation of Forest Ecosystems in the Russian Federation under Climate Change
https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556623040039
EDN: VJTUSW
Abstract
Correlations between the quantitative values of abiotic factors associated with climate change and the criteria for the vulnerability of forest ecosystems for 24 model subjects of the Russian Federation have been established. A high degree of closeness of the relationship between climatic parameters and forest fires was revealed for forest ecosystems in the Center and the South of Russia, as well as Eastern Siberia. Using a matrix model for positioning the adaptive potential of a single regional forest ecosystem, clusters with the most vulnerable to climate change groups of regional forest ecosystems were identified. The application of the developed methodology for the analysis of regional complexes of forest ecosystems made it possible to establish that there is a shift in the indicators of their adaptive potential to the lower limit of their sustainability (Arkhangelsk, Leningrad, Voronezh, Tyumen, Irkutsk oblasts, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Khabarovsk krai). Based on the study and clustering of model federal subjects according to the level of adaptive potential, differentiation of management decisions and forestry measures for enlarged territorial objects, including various federal subjects, was carried out in order to maintain and strengthen the adaptive potential of forest ecosystems. Measures for adapting forest ecosystems to climate change can be implemented in the context of three scenarios: forest management with elements of reactive adaptation to climate change for stable forest ecosystems, implementation of the forestry adaptation strategy to climate change for unstable forest ecosystems and restoration and maintenance of ecosystem functions of forests for degrading forest ecosystems.
Supporting agencies: The study was carried out within the framework of the state assignment of the Federal Forestry Agency dated December 29, 2022 no. 053-00011-23-00 on topic no. 2 “Scientific-analytical, organizational and methodological support for the implementation of the state climate policy in the field of forestry.”
About the Author
A. V. Konstantinov
St. Petersburg Forestry Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
References
1. Bonan G.B. Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks and climate benefits of forests. Science, 2008, vol. 320, no. 5882, pp. 1444–1449. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121
2. Chebakova N.M, Reifel’dt Dzh., Parfenova E.I. Redistribution of vegetation zones and populations of Siberian Larch and Scots Pine in Central Siberia under climate warming. Sib. Ekol. Zh., 2003, no. 6, pp. 677–686. (In Russ.).
3. Demakov Yu.P. Diagnostika ustoichivosti lesnykh ekosistem: metodologicheskie i metodicheskie aspekty [Diagnosis of the Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems: Methodological and Methodical Aspects]. Ioshkar-Ola, 2000. 416 p.
4. Gamache I., Payette S. Latitudinal response of subarctic tree lines to recent climate change in eastern Canada. J. Biogeogr., 2005, vol. 32, pp. 849–862. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2004.01182.x
5. Grigor’eva S.O., Konstantinov A.V., Shkol’nik I.M. The impact of climate change on the composition of forest stands, their stability and areas of the main forest-forming species. Tr. S.-Peterb. Nauch.-Issled. Inst. Lesn. Khoz., 2016, no. 3, pp. 4–21. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21178/2079-6080.2016.3.4
6. IPCC 2021. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Masson-Delmotte V., Zhai P., Pirani A., Connors S.L., Péan C., Berger S., Caud N., Chen Y., Goldfarb L., Gomis M.I., Huang M., Leitzell K., Lonnoy E., Matthews J.B.R., Maycock T.K., Waterfield T., Yelekçi O., Yu R., Zhou B., Eds. Cambridge: CUP; New York, 2021, pp. 3−32. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001
7. Istomin A.V. Some responses of biota to climate change in forest landscapes of the Caspian-Baltic watershed. Vestn. Balt. Feder. Univ. im. I. Kanta. Ser.: Estestv. i Med. Nauki, 2009, no. 7, pp. 15–22. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.5922/2223-2095-2009-7-2
8. Kashkarov E.P., Pomortsev O.A. Global climate warming: the rhythmic basis of the forecast and its practical significance in the protection of forests in the Northern Hemisphere. Khvoinye Boreal’noi Zony, 2007, vol. 24, no. 2–3, pp. 207–216. (In Russ.).
9. Khantemirov R.M., Surkov A.Yu., Gorlanova L.A. Climate change and the formation of larch age generations at the polar forest boundary in Yamal. Ekol., 2008, no. 5, pp. 323–328. (In Russ.).
10. Kharuk V.I., Dvinskaya M.L., Im S.T., Ranson K.J. Woody vegetation of the Western Sayan forest-tundra ecotone and climate trends. Ekol., 2008, no. 1, pp. 10–15. (In Russ.).
11. Kolomyts E.G. Regional’naya model’ global’nykh izmenenii prirodnoi sredy [Regional Model of Global Environmental Changes]. Moscow: Nauka Publ., 2003. 371 p.
12. Konstantinov A.V., Burtsev D.S. Study and assessment of the dynamics of forest productivity in the Russian Federation in the period from 1961 to 2011. Tr. S.-Peterb. Nauch.-Issled. Inst. Lesn. Khoz., 2013, no. 4, pp. 5–24. (In Russ.).
13. Konstantinov A.V. Methodology for assessing the vulnerable forest sector of the economy in the context of climate change. Tr. S.-Peterb. Nauch.-Issled. Inst. Lesn. Khoz., 2014, no. 3, pp. 73–77. (In Russ.).
14. Konstantinov A.V., Matveev S.M. Methodological approach to assessing the adaptive potential of forest ecosystems in the Russian Federation. Tr. S.-Peterb. Nauch.-Issled. Inst. Lesn. Khoz., 2020, no. 2, pp. 14–33. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21178/2079-6080.2020.2.14
15. Matveev S.M. Cyclic growth of pine stands in the Central forest-steppe in the 11-year cycle of solar activity. Iz. Vyssh. Ucheb. Zaved. Lesnoi Zh., 2005, no. 1–2, pp. 15–22. (In Russ.).
16. Mironov A.G. Dinamika lesnykh ekosistem yuga Srednei Sibiri v usloviyakh izmenyayushchegosya klimata i aktivatsii bioticheskogo vozdeistviya [Dynamics of Forest Ecosystems in the South of Central Siberia under Changing Climate and Activation of Biotic Impact]. Extended Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Agric.) Dissertation. Krasnoyarsk: Sib. St. Tech. Univ., 2007. 23 p.
17. Semenov M.A., Vysotskii A.A., Pashchenko V.I. Forecast of adaptive adaptations in forestry due to possible climate change. Iz. Vyssh. Ucheb. Zaved. Lesnoi Zh., 2019, no. 5 (371), pp. 57–69. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17238/issn0536-1036.2019.5.57
18. Sergienko V.G., Konstantinov A.V. Forecast of the impact of climate change on the diversity of natural ecosystems and species of floristic and faunistic complexes of the biota of Russia. Tr. S.-Peterb. Nauch.-Issled. Inst. Lesn. Khoz., 2016, no. 2, pp. 29–44. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21178/2079-6080.2016.2.27
19. Shiyatov S.G. Dinamika drevesnoi i kustarnikovoi rastitel’nosti v gorakh Pripolyarnogo Urala pod vliyaniem sovremennykh izmenenii klimata [Dynamics of Tree and Shrub Vegetation in the Mountains of the Subpolar Urals under the Influence of Modern Climate Change]. Ekaterinburg: UrO RAN Publ., 2009. 215 p.
20. Soja A.J., Tchebakova N.M., French N.H.F., Flannigan M.D., Shugart H.H., Stocks B.J., Sukhinin A.I., Parfenova E.I., Chapin III F.S., Stackhouse Jr. P.W. Climate induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations. Glob. Planet. Change, 2007, vol. 56, no. 3–4, pp. 274–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028
21. Zamolodchikov D., Kraev G. Impact of climate change on Russian forests: recorded impacts and forecasts. Ustoichivoe Lesopol’zovanie, 2016, no. 4 (48), pp. 23–31. (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Konstantinov A.V. Scenario Approach to Adaptation of Forest Ecosystems in the Russian Federation under Climate Change. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2023;87(4):558–567. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556623040039. EDN: VJTUSW
Views:
100
Email this article 
