Forecasting the Carbon Stock Dynamics in the Soils of Cultivated Croplands in European Russia in the Context of the Low-Carbon Development

Soil organic carbon sequestration potential in the cropland top soil layer (0–30 cm) of European Russia was assessed based on soil-ecological zoning using one of the most common global models of soil organic matter the Rothamsted dynamic carbon model (RothC) and open-access global databases such as Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS v4.05, 1901−2020, SoilGrids250m 2.0 and time-series MODIS (MOD13A1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices) NDVI and EVI. Data from the national Soil Organic Carbon Map at 0–30 cm depth were used to estimate the current carbon stocks. FAO unified technical specifications and guidance for the generation of national Soil Carbon Sequestration Map was used as the current study mapping approach. The average rate of carbon sequestration by natural zones under the business-as-usual scenario ranged from 0.076 to −0.002 t/ha per year, decreasing from northern taiga zone to semidesert. A 5% increase in carbon input due to carbon-conservation technologies adoption can result in a twofold increase in carbon capture, and a 20% increase in carbon capture can result in a fivefold increase. A two-fold increase in the rate of C sequestration from the southern taiga with a maximum in the broad-leaved forests zone, followed by 1.5 times decrease or more in the steppe and dry-steppe zone was found with increasing carbon input to the soil. The FAO methodology determines, with a spatial resolution of 1 km, contour lines that have the highest and lowest potential for carbon stock changes when adopting sustainable soil management.

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