The Volga River Water Runoff in Warm Epochs

Similarities and differences in climatic conditions (air temperature and precipitation), annual and seasonal runoff, as well as hydrographs of the Volga River runoff near Volgograd in the epochs of global warming in the geological past, the period of modern warming (since 1981), and the scenario global warming in the 21st century are revealed. Changes in the runoff of the geological past and the scenario future were estimated on the basis of the monthly water balance model developed at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the equation of the average long-term water balance. The results of traditional and model paleoclimatic reconstructions and climate scenarios of global warming in the 21st century were used as climatic conditions for assessing changes in runoff. Modern long-term changes in the Volga River runoff are analyzed on the basis of ideas about long-lasting contrasting phases. As a result of the analysis, it is shown that the annual Volga River runoff in the conditions of the warm epochs of the Mikulinsky interglacial and the Atlantic optimum of the Holocene (based on traditional paleoclimatic reconstructions) was lower than the modern one. Whereas, according to model paleoclimatic reconstructions of the warm epochs of the Holocene, climatic scenarios of anthropogenic warming, as well as in the conditions of modern global warming, the annual runoff of the Volga River is higher than in the base period. Significant differences in the changes in the seasonal distribution of the Volga River runoff between all the considered warm epochs were revealed. The different nature of these changes is characteristic of the warm epochs of the paleoepochs and in the conditions of scenario climatic changes in the 21st century. At the same time, changes in the seasonal distribution during modern global warming are similar to those that can be expected with scenario warming in the first third and middle of the current century (except snowmelt f lood runoff). A close correlation was revealed between the anomalies of changes in the annual air temperature and the annual amount of precipitation in all the considered warm epochs. During the period of instrumental observations, the long-term phases of the increased or decreased water runoff of the Volga River are synchronous with the corresponding phases of the index of the North Atlantic oscillation and the periods of increase and decrease in the annual levels of the Caspian Sea.

1. Ackerley D., Reeves J., Barr C., Bostock H., Fitzsimmons K., Fletcher M-S., Gouramanis C., McGregor H., Mooney S., Phipps S.J., Tibby J., Tyler J. Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions. Clim. Past, 2017, vol. 13, pp. 1661–1684. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017

2. Andreyanov V.G. Cyclical fluctuations of annual runoff, their changes in the territory and accounting for runoff calculations. Tr. III Vsesoyuz. Gidrolog. S’’ezda. Vol. II. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1959, pp. 3–49. (In Russ.).

3. Arc Atlas: Our Earth. Environmental Systems Research Institute, DATA+, 1996.

4. Atlas of Paleoclimates and Paleonvironments of the Northern Hemisphere. Late Pleistocene-Holocene. Stuttgart: Gustav Fesher Verlag, Budapest, 1992.

5. Bolgov M.V., Filippova I.A., Osipova N.V., Korobkina E.A., Trubetskova M.D. Modern features of the hydrological regime of the rivers of the Volga basin. In Vopr. Geografii, Tom 145 [Problems of Geography. Vol. 145], 2018, pp. 206–218. (In Russ.).

6. Bolgov M.V., Korobkina E.A., Filippova I.A. Bayesian prediction of minimum river runoff under nonstationary conditions of future climate change. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2016, vol. 41, pp. 497–503. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373916070074

7. Borisova O., Sidorchuk A., Panin A. Palaeohydrology of the Seim River basin, Mid-Russian Upland, based on palaeochannel morphology and palynological data. Catena, 2006, vol. 66, no. 1–2, pp. 53–73.

8. Budyko M.I. Klimat v proshlom i budushchem [Climate in the Past and Future]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1980. 352 p.

9. Caesar L., McCarthy G.D., Thornalley D.J.R., Cahill N., Rahmstorf S. Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last Millennium. Nature Geoscience, 2021, vol. 14, pp. 118–120. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z

10. Daily and Sub-daily Precipitation for the Former USSR. Version 1.0. Asheville, USA: National Climatic Data Center, 2005.

11. Georgiadi A.G. Reconstruction of river runoff based on natural proxy data. In Climatic change in the historical and instrumental period. Brno: Mazaric Univ., 1990, pp. 134–137.

12. Georgiadi A.G. Reconstruction of river flow based on historical and indirect data. Vodn. Resur., 1992, no. 4, pp. 106–114. (In Russ.).

13. Georgiadi A.G., Danilenko A.O. Northern Dvina River: long periods of increased and decreased water and ionic runoff in the 19th–21st centuries. Geogr. Nat. Resour., 2022, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 149–155. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1875372822020032

14. Georgiadi A.G., Groisman P.Y. Long-term changes of water flow, water temperature and heat flux of two largest arctic rivers of European Russia, Northern Dvina and Pechora. Environ. Res. Lett., 2022, vol. 17, no. 085002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac82c1

15. Georgiadi A.G., Kashutina E.A. Long phases of long-term changes in the flow of the largest rivers of the Arctic Ocean catchment. In Vopr. Geografii. Tom 142 [Problems of Geography. Vol. 142], 2016, pp. 178–195. (In Russ.).

16. Georgiadi A.G., Kashutina E.A. Long-term changes in the flow of the largest Siberian rivers. Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2016, no. 5, pp. 70–81. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15356/0373-2444-2016-5-70-81

17. Georgiadi A.G., Milyukova I.P. The scale of hydrological changes in the Volga River basin under anthropogenic climate warming. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2002, no. 2, pp. 72–79. (In Russ.).

18. Georgiadi A.G., Milyukova I.P. Features of hydrological anomalies in the Volga River basin in the warm epochs of the Holocene. Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2006, no. 6, pp. 112–120. (In Russ.).

19. Georgiadi A.G., Milyukova I.P. River flow in the basins of the largest rivers of the southern slope the Russian plain in the Late Atlantic optimum. Izv. Akad. Nauk. Ser. Geogr., 2007, no. 6, pp. 113–124. (In Russ.).

20. Georgiadi A.G., Kashutina E.A., Milyukova I.P. Longterm changes of water flow, water temperature and heat flux of the largest Siberian rivers. Polarforschung, 2018, vol. 87, no. 2, pp. 167–176. https://doi.org/10.2312/polarforschung. 87.2.167

21. Georgiadi A.G., Milyukova I.P., Kashutina, E.A. Contemporary and Scenario Changes in River Runoff in the Don Basin. Water Resour., 2021, vol. 47, no. 6, pp. 913− 923. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807820060068

22. Georgiadi A.G., Koronkevich N.I., Barabanova E.A., Kashutina E.A., Milyukova I.P. Contribution of Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors to Changes in the Flow of Large Rivers of the Russian Plain and Siberia. Dokl. Earth Sci., 2019, vol. 488, pp. 1211–1216. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X19100106

23. Georgiadi A.G., Koronkevich N.I., Barabanova E.A., Kashutina E.A., Milyukova I.P. Assessing the effect of climatic and anthropogenic factors on the annual runoff of large rivers in European Russia and Siberia. IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 2019, vol. 38, no. 012027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/381/1/012027

24. Georgiadi A.G., Koronkevich N.I., Milyukova I.P., Kislov A.V., Anisimov O.A., Barabanova E.A., Kashutina E.A., Borodin O.O. Stsenarnaya otsenka veroyatnykh izmenenii rechnogo stoka v basseinakh krupneishikh rek Rossii. Chast’ 1. Bassein reki Leny [Scenario Assessment of Probable Changes in River Flow in the Basins of the Largest Rivers of Russia. Part 1. Lena River Basin]. Moscow: “Max Press” Publ., 2011. 179 p.

25. Georgiadi A.G., Koronkevich N.I., Milyukova I.P., Kashutina E.A., Barabanova E.A. Sovremennye i stsenarnye izmeneniya rechnogo stoka v basseinakh krupneishikh rek Rossii. Chast’ 2. Basseiny rek Volgi i Dona [Modern and Scenario Changes in River Flow in the Basins of the Largest Rivers in Russia. Part 2. Basins of the Volga and Don Rivers]. Moscow: “Max Press” Publ., 2014. 214 p.

26. Georgievsky M.V., Golovanov O.F. Forecast estimates of changes in water resources of the largest rivers of the Russian Federation based on data on river flow of the CMIP5 project. Vestn. St. Petersburg Gos. Univ. Nauki Zemle, 2019, vol. 64, no. 2, pp. 206–218. (In Russ.).

27. Georgievsky V.Yu., Yezhov A.V., Shalygin A.L., Shiklomanov I.A., Shiklomanov A.B. Assessment of the impact of possible climate changes on the hydrological regime and water resources of the rivers of the former USSR. Meteorol. Hydrol., 1996, no. 11, pp. 89–99. (In Russ.).

28. Gusev E.M., Nasonova O.N. Modelirovanie teplo- i vlagoobmena poverkhnosti sushi s atmosferoi [Modeling of Heat and Moisture Exchange of the Land Surface with the Atmosphere]. Moscow: Nauka Publ., 2010. 327 p.

29. Jones P.D., Jónsson T., Wheeler D. Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int. J. Climatol., 1997, vol. 17, pp. 1433–1450.

30. Kislov A.V. Mathematical modeling of the Holocene optimum climate. Izv. Atmosph. Ocean. Phys., 1993, vol. 2, no. 7, pp. 705–713. (In Russ.).

31. Kislov A.V., Evstigneev V.M., Malkhazova S.M., Sokolikhina N.N., Surkova G.V., Toropov S.M., Chernyshev A.V., Chumachenko A.N. Prognoz klimaticheskoi resursoobespechennosti Vostochno-Evropeiskoi ravniny v usloviyakh potepleniya XXI veka [Forecast of Сlimatic Resource Availability of the East European Plain in the Conditions of Warming of the 21st Century]. Moscow: “Max Press” Publ., 2008. 290 p.

32. Lvovich M.I. Mirovye vodnye resursy i ikh budushchee [World Water Resources and Their Future]. Moscow: Mysl’ Publ., 1974. 448 p.

33. Meehl G.A., Covey C., Delworth T., Latif M., McAvaney B., Mitchell J.F.B., Stouffer R.J., Taylor K.E. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 2007, no. 88, pp. 1383–1394.

34. Mirovoi vodnyi balans i vodnye resursy Zemli [World Water Balance and Water Resources of the Earth]. Korzun V.I., Ed. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1974. 637 p.

35. Mokhov I.I., Semenov V.A., Khon V.K. Estimates of possible changes in the regional hydrological regime in the 21st century based on global climate models Izv. Atmosph. Ocean. Phys., 2003, no. 39, pp. 130–144. (In Russ.).

36. Motovilov Yu.G., Gelfan A.N. Modeli formirovaniya stoka v zadachakh gidrologii rechnykh basseinov [Models of Flow Formation in the Problems of Hydrology of River Basins]. Moscow: Russ. Acad. Sci. Publ., 2019. 300 p.

37. Paleoklimaty i paleolandshafty vnetropicheskogo prostranstva Severnogo polushariya. Pozdnii pleistotsen-golotsen [Paleoclimates and Paleolandscapes of the Extratropical Space of the Northern Hemisphere. Late PleistoceneHolocene]. Moscow: GEOS Publ., 2009. 120 p.

38. Panin A., Matlakhova E. Fluvial chronology in the East European Plain over the last 20 ka and its palaeohydrological implications. Catena, 2015, vol. 130, pp. 46–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.08.016

39. Panin G.N., Diansky N.A., Solomonova I.V., Gusev A.V., Vyruchalkina T.Yu. Assessment of climate change in the Arctic in the 21st century based on a combined prognostic scenario. Arktika: Ecol. and Econ., 2017, no. 2 (26), pp. 35–52. (In Russ.).

40. Panin A.V., Nefedov V.S. Analysis of Variations in the Regime of Rivers and Lakes in the Upper Volga and Upper Zapadnaya Dvina Based on Archaeological-Geomorphological Data. Water Resour., 2010, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 16–32.

41. Popova V.V., Georgiadi A.G. Spectral estimates of the relationship between the variability of the Volga runoff and the North Atlantic oscillation in 1882–2007. Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2017, no. 2, pp. 73–85. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15356/0373-2444-2017-2-47-59

42. Sherstyukov B.G. Kolebatel’naya sistema klimata, rezonansy, dal’nie svyazi, prognozy [Vibrational Climate System, Resonances, Long-Distance Communications, Forecasts]. Obninsk: RIHMI-WDC Publ., 2021. 221 p.

43. Shiklomanov I.A., Georgievski V.Yu., Shalygin A.L. River runoff as a major factor of long-term Caspian level fluctuations. In Proc. Int. Sci. Conf. “Climate and Water Balance Changes in the Caspian Region” (19–20 October 2010, Astrakhan). Astrakhan, 2011, pp. 9–15.

44. Shumm S. Paleohydrology of the Quaternary period. In Chetvertichnyi period v SShA. Tom I [The Quaternary Period in the USA. Vol. I]. Moscow: Mir Publ., 1968, pp. 541–559. (In Russ.).

45. Sidorchuk A.Yu., Panin A.V., Borisova O.K. River runoff decrease in North-Eurasian plains during the Holocene optimum. Water Resour., 2012, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 69–81.

46. Sidorchuk A.Yu., Panin A.V., Borisova O.K. Geomorphological approaches to assessing the magnitude of river runoff in the geological past (Article 5. Comparative analysis of the results obtained by different methods). Geomorph., 2019, no. 1, pp. 66–79. (In Russ.).

47. Velichko A.A., Belyaev A.V., Georgiadi A.G., Klimanov V.A. Reconstruction of climatic conditions and river flow in the Northern Hemisphere during the Mikulin interglacial and Holocene. Vodn. Resur., 1992, no. 4, pp. 34–42. (In Russ.).

48. Velichko A.A., Klimanov V.A., Belyaev A.V. Reconstruction of the Volga River flow and water balance the Caspian Sea in the optima of the Mikulino interglacial and Holocene. Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 1988, no. 1, pp. 27–37. (In Russ.).

49. Vodnye resursy Rossii i ikh ispol’zovanie [Water Resources of Russia and Their Use]. Shiklomanov I.A., Ed. St. Petersburg: Gos. Hydrol. Inst. Publ., 2008. 600 p.