Long-Term Changes in the Level of the Caspian Sea and Modern Options for Their Forecasting
https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556623060067
EDN: EGCZBH
Abstract
Various approaches to the study and forecast of long-term changes in the average annual level of the Caspian Sea are considered. Within the framework of the most common methods, it is considered that such estimates are possible only in a probabilistic sense since the main components of the seawater balance behave randomly. However, for the majority of consumers, a specifically designated perspective of a level change and a justification for the answer to the question are important: if there is another significant change, then how long and to what extreme value does it continue? With the accumulation of data on the dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean parameters, including the results of space monitoring, there are more and more reports on the identification of multidecadal recurrence in their time series. Over the past years, attempts have been repeatedly made, based on the study of sea level dynamics, to identify cyclical components within its time series in order to use them both to describe sharp declines and rises that occurred earlier and to predict similar changes in the future. Data analysis in this case consists of searching for such periods of variability within which the requirements of limited periodic composition and stability of the components that form the time series would be met. With the help of a specially created software environment, a study of a series consisting of historical and modern data on observations of the level of the Caspian Sea over the past 230 years was carried out in order to identify stable periodicities and build an approximating polynomial with their help. It is shown that in this time interval, in addition to the centuries-old trend, there are two clearly expressed quasi-cyclical components. The approximation made using them well describes the entire previous dynamics of the level up to 2021 and can be used as a basis for constructing forecast estimates.
About the Author
V. В. Ermakov
Zubov State Oceanographic Institute (FSBI “SOI”)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Ermakov V.В. Long-Term Changes in the Level of the Caspian Sea and Modern Options for Their Forecasting. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2023;87(6):930-940. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556623060067. EDN: EGCZBH
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