Observed and Expected Climate Changes on the East European Plain and Their Influence on River Flow (Case Study of the Don River)

The paper examines modern climate change over the East European Plain, and the response of river runoff to them in the Don basin. A significant warming of 1.8°C on average in winter at the level during the 1991–2020 period compared to 1961–1990 led to an increase in the number of days with positive air temperatures. There was an increase in the amount of total precipitation in autumn and winter, as well as the share of liquid precipitation in the winter season, with the greatest increase in the west and center of the study area. In the Don basin during the same period, the greatest warming in winter by 1.6°C was observed compared to other seasons and a slight increase in precipitation in all seasons except summer. There has been a noticeable intra-annual redistribution of the Don runoff since the 1990s compared to 1961–1990, which has changed the ratio of low-water vs high-water runoff. A significant increase in runoff was observed in all months of the year except April and May; in April it decreased significantly. The largest increase in runoff by 55.7% was observed in January. It was showed that almost half of the variations in Don runoff in January were due to thaws, and about 20% of its variability was due to changes in precipitation in autumn and winter, including liquid precipitation in December. The contribution of thaws in the formation of winter runoff, the frequency of which has increased 2.6 times over the past thirty years compared to the previous period, has doubled, and the influence of total precipitation, on the contrary, has decreased. Projections of climate models in the 21st century suggest a gradual advance of the border of the observation area of winter thaws to the northeast of the plain, leading to active snowmelt, an increase in river flow in winter and a decrease in floods. According to scenarios of moderate and aggressive anthropogenic impact on climate in the period 2061–2100, the designated boundaries may shift not only to the northwestern part of the Volga basin, but to the river basins of the European north of Russia as well.

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