Climate Change and Methodology for Assessing Climate Risks in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast

An analysis of long-term data on seasonal, monthly and annual mean air temperatures, precipitation and wind speeds was carried out. It was shown that during the last 20–30 years there has been a seasonal intra-annual restructuring of temperature conditions: winters are becoming milder and summers less hot. The results of the cluster analysis of hydrometeorological data showed that the most pronounced features of the average winter air temperature are characteristic of the westernmost settlements of Leningrad oblast, such as the city of Kingisepp. This may be due to their greater proximity to the open waters of the Gulf of Finland, which have a warming effect. The coldest areas are the eastern regions of Leningrad oblast, far from significant water bodies, which form the second most important cluster, including the territories of the cities of Tikhvin, Lodeynoye Pole and the area of the village of Vinnitsa. The most windy areas, where wind speeds of more than 20 m/s are most frequently observed, posing a significant threat to the operation of various man- made objects, including power lines, ports and water transport, are the coastal areas of the Gulf of Finland, including, first and foremost, the cities of Vyborg, St. Petersburg, and Kingissep. Strong winds also have a destructive effect on forest ecosystems, causing windfalls, especially in coniferous forests on sandy soils, including in the Kurortny district of St. Petersburg along the northern coast of the Neva Bay. An increase in the intensity and frequency of atmospheric precipitation will lead to an increase in the volume of wastewater, which may threaten the drainage systems of St. Petersburg and settlements in Leningrad oblast. The need to analyse the current capacities of the municipal sewage treatment plants and to increase their productivity is justified. The values of hydro-meteorological parameters describing natural processes threatening the life of the population of St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast have been normalised. Methodological approaches for a comprehensive risk assessment of climate change are substantiated, which can be used later for the preparation of climate safety passports for St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast.

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