Climatic Factor in the Modern Cycle of Development of Socio-Natural Systems (on the Example of the Lake Imandra Basin)

Abstract

For several decades a panarchic type of social-natural system has been formed in the territory of the Imandra basin (Murmansk oblast): within certain time intervals the development of its “nature–society–economy” blocks can be multidirectional, multi-temporal and multi-scale. The modern system of nature management in the territory determines the synergy of matter-energy flows produced by the blocks, which reflects the panarchic nature of the system. The modern development cycles of the social-natural system blocks were analysed in order to reveal the mechanisms for achieving their renewal in accordance with sustainable development. This reflects the aim of the research. The analysis was based on the processing of thematic publications and statistical data, results of field ecological-landscape studies conducted by the authors. Different rates of transformation of the system blocks were clearly manifested in the 21st century, each block having different stages of development. The climatic factor controlling the development of the natural block was clearly manifested since the last third of the 20th century and stimulated the renewal of the system. The modern stage of development of the social block was characterised by the accumulation cycle of changes, and the economic block by the restructuring cycle. The socio-natural system of the territory during its development overcomes certain thresholds–turning points of its vectors changes. Signs of overcoming the threshold of disturbances destroying the natural block by reducing the anthropogenic load and intensification of the biogeochemical cycle due to climate warming have been marked. Harmonisation of development cycles is a complex management task, the solution of which requires an analysis of the specific characteristics of the system blocks, the existing obstacles to their development, the acceptable states of their restructuring and the objectives of their renewal. The socio-natural system does not have an absolute coincidence of development cycles, but the general equilibrium can be ensured by their convergence. Mechanisms have been proposed to accelerate the restructuring cycle of the social block for its renewal.