Water Flow of the Largest Russian Rivers in Modern and Scenario Global Warming

The results of a comparative study of the changes in the flow of the large rivers of the Russian Plain (Volga, Don, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Neva rivers), Siberia (Ob, Irtysh, Yenisei, Angara, Lena, Vilyui rivers) and the Far East (Amur River) under conditions of modern global warming and during the period of scenario anthropogenic climate changes in the 21st century are presented. It is based on a comparison of the annual and seasonal river runoff of the reference period and the period of modern global warming; calculations based on the monthly water balance model developed at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences; estimates of changes in annual river flow obtained by the method of the average long-term annual water balance and atmospheric precipitation and evaporation data calculated within the framework of the CMIP5 program on an ensemble of global climate models for periods of modern and scenario global warming. During the period of modern global warming, compared with the previous base period, an increase in annual runoff and runoff of the main hydrological seasons was observed on the Volga, Kama, Don, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Irtysh, Yenisei, Angara, Lena and Vilyui rivers, especially noticeable in winter, as well as in summer-autumn hydrological seasons. Whereas, on the Don, along with the most significant of all the rivers considered, the relative increase in winter runoff, as well as a noticeable increase in summer-autumn runoff, the greatest decrease in snowmelt flood runoff, as well as annual runoff, was revealed. The coincidence of the sign of changes in the annual runoff of the Volga, Don, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisei, Lena and Vilyui rivers during the period of modern global warming, calculated from observations and the equation of water balance using atmospheric precipitation and evaporation data obtained by averaging the results of calculations on the ensemble of global climate models of the CMIP5 program, has been established. Relative scenario changes in the annual runoff of the Volga, Neva, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, Vilyui, Kolyma and Amur rivers in comparison with the runoff of the base period correlate quite closely with the corresponding changes in annual atmospheric precipitation amounts, and scenario changes in total evaporation with changes in annual air temperature.

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