Post-Soviet Dynamics of Spatial Development of Warehouse Real Estate Market in Moscow Urban Agglomeration

The article is devoted to the territorial projection of the warehouse real estate market development in the post-Soviet period using the example of the Moscow urban agglomeration and adjacent regions. The Moscow region has the largest and most geographically dispersed warehouse network, and against the background of record demand for warehouse real estate and the growth of regional warehouse networks, it is necessary to systematize the logic of market development in order to assess future prospects. The analysis is carried out using statistical methods based on data from consulting companies IBC Real Estate, NF Group on key indicators of market development and warehouse facilities. Stages of market spatial development have been identified: emergence, formation, stabilization, and saturation. At the first stage, market activity is concentrated in the core of the urban agglomeration and in the sub-periphery between the MKAD and the Central Ring Road (near the export-import terminals). At the second stage, it shifts to the sub-periphery along the main highways, and the core becomes a secondary market. At the third stage, activity remains in the sub-periphery, expanding into sectors between motorways and also moving further out to the periphery beyond the Central Ring Road (the most attractive areas are the intersections of the Central Ring Road and the main motorways). At the final stage, activity will be concentrated on the periphery, while the core of the urban agglomeration will be redeveloped. At the same time, at each stage, demand and new construction are shifting to neighboring regions, which are still at different stages of development: regions using external agglomeration effects (proximity to the Moscow urban agglomeration—Tver and Kaluga oblasts) or internal agglomeration effects (domestic consumer demand—Yaroslavl oblast) are developing faster. The onset of the saturation stage in the Moscow urban agglomeration slowed down the growth of online retail due to the transformation of consumption patterns after COVID-19, which returned the demand for warehouse real estate not only to the sub-periphery, but also to the core of the urban agglomeration.

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