Trends in the Fluctuations of Near-Surface Air Temperature (a Case Study of Bashkiria)
https://doi.org/10.15356/0373-2444-2015-1-77-86
Abstract
The main purpose of the work was a computation of linear trends of near-surface air temperature for 80-year observation period based on the data from seven meteorological stations in Bashkiria, viz., Yanaul (1926–2012), Askino (1918–2012), Chishmy (1913–2012), Tukan (1935–2012), Meleuz (1933–2012), Baymak (1949–2012), Zilair (1933–2012). The climate of the analyzed region that is located in the East of the European part of Russia is continental due to the long distance from the Atlantic Ocean and the influence of warm air masses of Central Asia.
The average annual and seasonal temperature records were first smoothed with a 5-year Fourier fi lter in order to exclude temperature anomalies. Next, the smoothed temperature data were treated with regression analysis to compute linear trends. After being treated with the Fourier fi lter, the temperature series showed characteristic fl uctuations for both average annual and seasonal temperature data. Spectral analysis showed temperature cycles with an 11-year period. To establish the genesis of the cycles, a comparison with oscillations of the Wolf numbers was performed. For the majority of the meteorological stations under study, an average annual temperature had decreasing trend from the beginning of observations up to 1969, followed by a subsequent temperature increase trend from 1970 to the present time. Similar trends were computed for seasonal temperatures. Winter and summer temperatures also showed the same increasing trend from 1970 to 2000. However, since 2000, winter and summer temperatures have behaved differently, indicating a drastic decrease in winter and a new increase in summer temperatures. This could be associated with the Bashkiria climate becoming more continental.
About the Authors
D. Yu. Vasil’ev
Ufa State Aviation Technical University, General Scientific Faculty, Department of Physics
Russian Federation
Ufa
Russian Federation
Ufa
Yu. I. Ferapontov
Regional Department of Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring, Hydrometeorological Center of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Vasil’ev D.Yu., Ferapontov Yu.I. Trends in the Fluctuations of Near-Surface Air Temperature (a Case Study of Bashkiria). Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2015;(1):77-86. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.15356/0373-2444-2015-1-77-86
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