Spatial Regularities of Long­Term Dynamics of Passenger Flow at Moscow Metro Stations

Abstract

The paper discusses the hypothesis that the spatial arrangement of Moscow metro stations influences the variability of passenger flow over time. This hypothesis is based on the fact that, due to the peculiarities of the spatial structure of the city, the passenger flow in the central part of Moscow is influenced by a larger number of factors than in the stations located in the periphery of the city, and as a result, the passenger flow in the stations located in the center of the city should be more uneven in time dynamics. The study uses topological and statistical methods to confirm this hypothesis. The spatial position of each station is calculated using the closeness centrality indicator, and two indicators are selected as parameters for the analysis: the variability of passenger flow over time (volatility), calculated using the variation coefficient, and the relative change in passenger flow volume between the beginning and the end of the study period. The results showed that stations with the highest volatility are located chaotically, but stations with medium and low volatility form more compact spatial groups according to the center-periphery gradient. The relative change in passenger traffic over the study period is determined more by the spatial location of the stations: most stations in the central part of the agglomeration core show a decrease in passenger traffic, while on the periphery there is a slowing of the rate of decrease or even growth. It is concluded that the spatial location is an important factor to consider when forecasting passenger traffic, since stations located in the city center are affected by more factors than stations located in the outskirts, which ultimately affects the volatility.