Shrinking Cities in Post-Soviet Russia and Kazakhstan: Common and Individual Trends
https://doi.org/10.7868/S2658697526010062
Abstract
The purpose of the paper is to understand the specific features of shrinkage of urban space In Russia and Kazakhstan during the post-Soviet period. Research methodology combined analysis of changes in number and population of shrinking cities, studying timeline of shrinkage across regions, identification of typical trajectories and factors contributing to their decline, and trends in current dynamics. Analysis conducted using census data and based on average annual population decline index (1% or more) in 1989–2025 revealed that urban shrinkage in these two largest post-Soviet states had both common features driven by a high share of single‑industry towns and sparse settlement patterns, and differences related to natural population change (growth or decline) and migration. In Russia, after a slowdown between 2010 and 2021, processes of urban shrinkage have tended to expand spatially, while in less urbanized Kazakhstan, shrinkage has gradually become localized in a limited number of centers in the northern and eastern regions. Analysis of shrinkage trajectory types shows that both in Kazakhstan and Russia, cities located within urban agglomerations also used to occasionally fall into this group. In both countries the general situation is improving for most regional centers, in Kazakhstan this improvement is faster due to natural population increase. Stagnant decline is experienced mainly by towns, many of which are district centers and industrial single‑industry towns.
Keywords
urban dynamics,
depopulation,
post-Soviet states,
urban shrinkage trajectories,
urban shrinkage factors
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared as part of the state assignment for research by the Department of Economic and Social Geography of Russia at the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University “Modern Dynamics and Factors of Socioeconomic Development of Regions and Cities in Russia and the CIS Countries” no. 121051100161-9.
About the Authors
P. L. Kirillov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
A. G. Makhrova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
S. G. Safronov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
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For citations:
Kirillov P.L., Makhrova A.G., Safronov S.G. Shrinking Cities in Post-Soviet Russia and Kazakhstan: Common and Individual Trends. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2026;90(1):82-98. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.7868/S2658697526010062
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