Preview

Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya

Advanced search

LONG ARCTIC INVASION AND EL-NINO–SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

https://doi.org/10.1134/S2587556618040088

Abstract

The statistical relationships of interannual changes in the total duration of Long Arctic Invasion in Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Northern Hemisphere with the formation of baric ridges between the Arctic and subtropical anticyclones with variations of climate indices of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process are analyzed. Interannual changes in these indices in the 20th century significantly influenced the variations in the total duration of the considered Arctic invasions in the Pacific sector in February. For most indices, this effect was strongest if their ranks, ahead of the ranks of the processes studied for two months. The revealed relationships, in general, are not stationary and vary depending on the period under review. The relationship of ENSO indices and the total duration of the Arctic invasions in the Atlantic sector in November and October are significant in the 21st century, when the time shifts between these processes were 0–4 months.

About the Authors

A. V. Kholoptsev
Sevastopol Branch, Zubov State Oceanographic Institute.
Russian Federation


V. A. Semenov
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Russian Federation


N. K. Kononova
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Russian Federation


References

1. Aivazian S.A., Mhitarian V.S. Prikladnaya statistika i osnovy ekonometriki [Applied Statistics and Econometrics Fundamentals]. Moscow: YUNITY Publ., 1998. 1022 р.

2. Voskresenskaya E.N., Polonsky A.B. North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño. Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, 1992, no. 4, pp. 23–30. (In Russ.).

3. Gruza G.V. Rankova E.J., Kleschenko L.K., Sokolikhina E.V., Sokolikhina N.N. On the relationship be tween climate anomalies in Russia with El NiñoSouthern Oscillation. Meteorol. Gidrol.,1999, no. 5, pp.32–51. (In Russ.).

4. Dzerdzeevskii B.L. The circulation mechanisms in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in the twentieth century. Materialy meteorologicheskikh issledovanii. Moscow: IG AN SSSR, Soviet Geophysical Committee, 1968. 240 p. (In Russ.).

5. Dzerdzeevskii B.L., Kurganskaya V.M., Vitvitskaya Z.M. Classification of circulation mechanisms in the Northern Hemisphere and characteristics of synoptic seasons. In Trudy n.-i. Uchrezhdenii Gl. Upr. Gidrometeorol. Sluzhby pri Sovete Ministrov SSSR. Ser. 2. Sinopticheskaya Meteorologiya, Moscow, Leningrad: Gidrometizdat, 1946, no. 21. 80 p. (In Russ.).

6. Zheleznova I.V., Guschina D.J. The response of the global atmospheric circulation in the two types of El Niño. Meteorol. Gidrol., 2015, no. 3, pp. 36–50. (In Russ.).

7. Zacks S. The Theory of Statistical Inference. NewYork: John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1971. 626 p.

8. Kononova N.K. Klassifikatsiya tsirkulyatsionnykh mekhanizmov Severnogo polushariya po B.L. Dzerdzeevskomu [Classification Circulation Mechanisms of the Northern Hemisphere According to BL Dzerdzeevskii]. Shmakin А.B., Ed. Moscow: IG RAS, Voentehinizdat Publ., 2009. 372 p.

9. Kramer G. Matematicheskie metody statistiki [Mathematical Methods of Statistics]. Moscow: Mir Publ., 1975. 648 p.

10. Mokhov I.I., AkbarovM.G., Prokofieva M.A. Blockings in the Northern Hemisphere and the Euro-Atlantic region: assessment of changes from reanalysis data and model calculations. Dokl. Akad. Nauk, 2013, vol.449, no. 5, pp. 1–5. (In Russ.).

11. Mokhov I.I., Smirnov D.A. Study of mutual influence processes of theEl Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations of Nonlinear methods. Dokl. Akad.Nauk, 2006, vol. 42, no. 5, pp.650–667. (In Russ.).

12. Mokhov I.I., Timazjev A.V. Climatic anomalies in the regions of Eurasia: the effects of El Niño / La Niña. Dokl. Akad.Nauk, 2013, vol. 453, no. 2, pp. 211–214. (In Russ.).

13. Nastavlenie po sluzhbe prognozov. Razdel 3, chast’. III. Sluzhba morskikh gidrologicheskikh prognozov [Manual on the Service Forecasts. Step 3, part. III. Service Marine Hydrological Forecasts]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1982. 143 p.

14. Nesterov E.S. The variability of the characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean in the Atlantic-European region during the events of El Niño and La Niña. Meteorol. Gidrol., 2000, no. 8, pp. 74–83. (In Russ.).

15. Petrosyants M.A., Semenov E.K., Guschina D.U., Sokolikhina E.V., Sokolikhina N.N. Tsirkulyatsiya atmosfery v tropikakh: klimat i izmenchivost [The Circulation of the Atmosphere in the Tropics: the Climate and Variability]. Moscow: Max Press Publ., 2005. 670 p.

16. Petrosyants M.A., Guschina D.U. The Large-scale interaction of the global circulation of the atmosphere with the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Meteorol. Gidrol., 1998, no. 12, pp. 5–22. (In Russ.).

17. Polonsky A.B. Rol okeana v izmeneniyakh klimata [The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change]. Kiev: Naukova Dumka Publ., 2008, 184 p. (In Russ.).

18. Shakina N.P., Ivanova A.R. Blocking anticyclones: the current state of research and forecasting. Meteorol. Gidrol., 2010, no. 11, pp. 5–18. (In Russ.).

19. Bjerknes J. A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of Ocean temperature. Tellus, 1966, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 820–829.

20. Bjerknes J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1966, vol. 97, pp.163–172.

21. Held I.M.S., Lyons S.W. and Nigam S. Transients and the extratropical response to El Nino. J. Atmos. Sci., 1989, vol. 46, pp. 163–174.

22. Horel J.D., Wallace J. M. Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1981, vol. 109, pp. 813–829.

23. Lau N.C. Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response toobserved El-Ninos in 1962-76. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1985, vol. 113, pp. 1970–1996.

24. Trenberth K.E. and Stepaniak D.P. Indices of El Nino evolution. J. Clim., 2001, vol. 14, pp. 1601–1624.

25. Walker G.T. Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, VIII. A preliminary study of world weather. Memoirs of the India Meteorological Department, 1923, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 75–131.

26. Walker, G.T. Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, IX. A further study of world weather. Memoirs of the India Meteorological Department, vol. 24, no. 9, pp. 275–333.

27. Wolter K., Timlin M.S. El-Nino/Southern Oscillation behavior since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). Intl. J. Climatology, 2011, no. 31(7), pp. 1074–1087.

28. Fluctuations of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in the twentieth century – beginning of the XXI century. Available at: http://www.atmospheric-circulation.ru (accessed 12.05.2018).

29. NOAA database on the values of global climatic indices. Available at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/forinfo (accessed 12.05.2018)


Graphical Abstract

1. The total annual duration of arctic blockings lasting 3 days or more in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors
Subject
Type Исследовательские инструменты
View (21KB)    
Indexing metadata ▾
  • The statistical relationship of interannual changes in the total duration (TD) of Arctic intrusions with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific sector became in the 21st century less significant than in the 20th century.
  • The statistical relationship between TD and ENSO in the Atlantic sector is significant with the time shifts up to 4 months. It is also increasing in the 21st century.

Review

For citations:


Kholoptsev A.V., Semenov V.A., Kononova N.K. LONG ARCTIC INVASION AND EL-NINO–SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2018;(4):22-32. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.1134/S2587556618040088

Views: 560


ISSN 2587-5566 (Print)
ISSN 2658-6975 (Online)