Assessment of Climatogenic Hazard of the Taiga Tick Ixodes persulcatus Distribution in and Neighboring Countries at the Beginning of the 21st Century
https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556621020138
Abstract
A statistical assessment is given and schematic maps of the spatial distribution of the climatogenic hazard of the taiga tick Ixodes persulcatus distribution in Russia and several neighboring countries in 1971-1980 and 2001-2010 are constructed. The hazard assessment was made using a previously developed original method based on the principles of statistical modeling. The regularities of the spatial distribution of the degree of climatogenic hazard of the development of taiga tick populations within tick's geographic range are shown: the maximum degree of hazard characterizes the central parts of the range; the hazard decreases closer to the borders. The changes in the climatogenic hazard of the taiga tick distribution in the second period with respect to the first are calculated. A significant increase in the hazard of the taiga tick populations development in the second period compared to the first one in the greater part of the range, especially in its northern part, has been established due to climate change. At the same time, in the southwestern part of the geographic range and in some other parts of it, there was a decrease in the climatogenic hazard of distribution.
Supporting agencies: The work was performed within the framework of the state-ordered research theme of the Institute of Geography RAS no. 0148-2019-0009, AAAA-A19-119022190173-2 “Climate Change and Its Consequences for the Environment and Population Life and Activities on the Territory of Russia.” The meteorological data were obtained and processed due to the funding of theme 3.1.: “Development of the Methods and Technologies of Climate Servicing, Including the Improvement of Models for Climate Prediction, Methods of Assessing the Consequences of Climate Changes, Climate Substantiation of National Adaptation Plans, and Monitoring of Adaptation Efficiency” according to the plan of Roshydromet.
About the Authors
I. O. Popov
Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow.
S. M. Semenov
Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; National Research University Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow.
E. N. Popova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow.
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For citations:
Popov I.O., Semenov S.M., Popova E.N. Assessment of Climatogenic Hazard of the Taiga Tick Ixodes persulcatus Distribution in and Neighboring Countries at the Beginning of the 21st Century. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. 2021;85(2):231-237. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556621020138
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