INTERRELATION OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION IN MOSCOW AGGLOMERATION AND MIGRATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION

Housing construction inMoscowagglomeration is a key mechanism stimulating migration inflow because it forms a downward pressure on housing prices, which are the most important barrier for migration. Positive feedback between extensive way of development of theMoscowagglomeration and migration inflow into the capital region stimulates hyperconcentration of the population and economic activity. Theoretical analysis shows that there is equilibrium between housing construction and migration inflow to theMoscowregion. According to our estimates, in the 2000-s the relation of migration inflow to housing construction volume (capability of theMoscowagglomeration to accumulate migration) has halved in comparison to the 1990s. Mathematical modeling and empirical data show that this shift was determined by the increase in natural rent distributed inRussiaand in agglomeration economies in other major cities of the country. Especially favorable for migration inflow is oil-spot-style extensive way of development of the agglomeration due to the dominance of largegreenfieldprojects of affordable housing in the 30-km zone outside the Moscow Ring Road in housing construction. It is shown that the development of this zone is a key regulator of the migration balance at the national level. Extensive way of development is subsidized by the government through multiple channels, primarily investments in transport infrastructure, what contradicts official goals of the regional policy and the government efforts to mitigate interregional inequality through the fiscal redistribution.

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